In 2016, the adjustment of national policy adjustments was extremely frequent, profoundly affecting and changing the pattern of lithium battery industry and the survival status of enterprises. On the occasion of this major change in the industry, how can lithium-ion enterprises seize opportunities and avoid risks?
From the national policy, capital mergers and acquisitions and project expansion, production and sales in various segments, development trends, innovative technologies and products, use 10 sets of data to restore a true 2016 lithium battery industry ecology to help lithium battery companies better The land "understands the present and judges the future." And see below:
1. National policy: 3 categories
National policies have a great guiding role in the development of lithium and new energy industries, and play a key role in the formation of the competitive landscape of the entire industry chain. From the current point of view, the domestic new energy vehicle policy has gradually formed a system that covers macro policies, promotion and application of preferential policies, industry management policies, science and technology innovation policies, and infrastructure policies.
The policies promulgated at the national level can be divided into three categories, namely, strategy, trend and compulsory.
Strategic policies include carbon quota trading system, new energy vehicle credit system, energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap, etc. The main feature is that it will benefit the development of the whole industry in the long run, but it will be less effective in the short term; mandatory policies include â€œelectric bus safetyâ€. Technical Conditions, Interim Measures for the Management of Recycling and Utilization of New Energy Vehicles' Power Battery , "New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Catalogue", "New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers and Product Access Management Regulations", etc., characterized by mandatory and unpredictability. In the short term, it will have a greater impact on enterprises; the trend policy includes subsidies and subsidies, and support policies for leading enterprises in the industry, characterized by a long span period and predictability.
Although some policies still have a lot of controversy, it is undeniable that it is developing in a multi-dimensional system. In this sense, it will play a positive role in promoting the development of new energy vehicles.
2. New energy vehicles: 402,000 units / 60.4%
From January to November this year, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 427,000 and 402,000 respectively, up 59.0% and 60.4% respectively.
In terms of months, the output in November showed a large breakthrough, reaching 84,796 units, an increase of 27.3% year-on-year and a 99.6% increase from the previous month. In terms of vehicle types, the production of passenger cars, buses and special vehicles accounted for 48.4% and 33.4 respectively. %, 18.2%, passenger cars are still the main components of new energy vehicles; depending on the type of sub-power, special vehicles EV accounted for 100.0%; passenger car EV accounted for 89.1%, passenger car PHEV accounted for 10.9%; passenger cars EV accounted for 86.4%, and passenger car PHEV accounted for 13.6%. Overall, pure electric power accounted for 90.2%, and plug-in hybrid power accounted for 9.8%. Pure electric power is still the key promotion direction of each type of vehicle.
3, power battery: 14.2 billion watt hours / 60Gwh / 34%
From January to October of this year, China's new energy vehicle power battery supporting total amounted to 14.2 billion watt-hours, of which pure electric vehicle models have more than 12.9 billion watt-hours of power battery, accounting for 91%; plug-in hybrid power battery The supporting amount is 1.2 billion watt-hours, accounting for 9%.
Driven by both policy and capital, the power battery capacity in 2016 reached 60GWh. The mainstream power battery factory is in a state of expansion. By the end of 2016, the power battery capacity has increased by more than 100% compared with the same period of last year; in 2016, due to subsidies, ternary suspension, deception, adjustment of power battery specifications, etc., some expansion plans are stranded; 2017 Overcapacity began, price competition began, and cost pressures increased.
In the market trend of power batteries, Sanyuan is becoming a major trend. In 2016, Sanyuan Power Battery production accounted for 34%, up 11% year-on-year, mainly driven by passenger car growth; Sanyuan Bus â€œlifting the banâ€ will further promote Ternary development; the national 2020 300Wh/kg energy density requirements must be achieved through new material systems and new battery technologies.
4, cost reduction: 35% -40%
Recently, the Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document "Strictly punishing new energy vehicles to defraud behaviors to regulate the industrial development order", showing that the energy density of lithium-ion power battery cells reached 220 watt-hours/kg, and the system price dropped to 2 yuan/watt hour; The density is more than 3 kW/kg, which is basically the same as the international level; the charging efficiency, power density and output voltage range of the fast charging system are steadily improved, and the functions of dual gun charging and mobile payment are realized, and the cost is reduced by more than 30% compared with 2015.
With the decline of subsidies, cost reduction will become the biggest pressure for power battery companies in 2017. It is understood that the price requirements for OEMs for battery manufacturers are 35%-40% lower than 2016.
Under the cost pressure of car companies, the gross profit of power batteries will decline significantly in 2017, and the price of raw materials will also decline steadily with the gradual release of production capacity. The focus of future power battery cost reduction is reflected in three aspects. First, the scale effect appears; second, the manufacturing qualification rate is improved; third, it is due to the improvement of automation.
5. Capital: 120 billion yuan / 55
As of January-November 2016, the domestic lithium battery industry investment (including the proposed investment) exceeded 120 billion yuan, and the actual investment was 55 billion yuan, of which the power battery, cathode material and diaphragm investment amount were the most; the power battery and cathode material investment scale was large. On the one hand, it is related to the project funding needs, on the other hand, it is related to market opportunities.
Parallel to investment is crazy capital and mergers and acquisitions. As of the beginning of December 2016, there were 55 domestic M&A projects in the lithium battery industry. The types of M&A cases were: 1) upstream and downstream integration of the industry; 2) cross-border acquisitions and new business development. Lithium materials and equipment with higher profits are more concerned. A number of companies have accelerated the upstream and downstream extension of the industrial chain through mergers and acquisitions, and the attention of nickel, cobalt and lithium resources has increased.
6. Four key materials: 34 billion yuan / 5.08%
In 2016, the output value of the four key materials was 34 billion yuan, an increase of 50.8%. In 2016, the output value of the four major materials increased by more than 50%. The main reasons were: 1) the price of cathode materials and electrolytes rose sharply; 2) the growth of power battery production and the demand for materials; 3) the further increase in localization rate, and the export volume continued to grow. The anode outlet exceeds 15%.
7, new materials: 8 categories
According to the national planning goals, it is urgent for power battery companies to improve product performance. The most important way is to achieve continuous upgrading of materials. According to incomplete statistics, since 2016, it has included high-nickel ternary, silicon-carbon anode, three-layer composite separator, new lithium salt LiFSI, water-based binder, graphene composite conductive paste, organic silica gel, phase change materials, etc. 8 Large types of new materials are in the process of industrialization speed increase or are being tested in the industry.
8, lithium carbonate: 6 mergers and acquisitions / 8 projects
From the overall situation this year, due to the fluctuation of the new energy automobile industry, the downstream demand did not meet expectations. The price of lithium carbonate gradually dropped from about 180,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to about 120,000 yuan/ton, and it was basically in the second half of the year. Steady state. Based on the long-term optimism about the new energy auto industry, this year there is still a large amount of investment in the merger and acquisition of lithium carbonate standards, and many lithium product manufacturers have started expansion projects.
The 6 major M&A and investment events are: Jianruiwo can enter the Australian Altura Mining, BYD and Salt Lake shares and other joint ventures to set up a new company of 500 million, *ST Jiangquan Tengcang for the bird to buy 2.2 billion yuan to purchase Ruifu Lithium Industry, West The mining company intends to purchase a 100% stake in Qinghai Lithium with a price of 1.776 billion yuan, a 513 million yuan from Jean Nickel, and a 18.1% stake in RIM.
The 8 major expansion projects are: Tianqi Lithium Industry invested 2 billion to build an annual output of 24,000 tons of battery-grade single-water lithium hydroxide project, Yanfeng Lithium invested 303 million to build 20,000 tons of lithium hydroxide monohydrate, Steyr 18,000 tons of lithium carbonate project, Jiangte Electric's annual output of 6,000 tons of lithium carbonate technical transformation project (completed), Ruifu lithium industry with an annual output of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate project (expected to be put into production in 2017), Yongzheng lithium battery annual output of 5,000 tons Battery-grade lithium hydroxide/high-purity lithium carbonate project, Feicheng investment 1.1 billion annual output of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate project in December trial operation, Qinghai Salt Lake BYD will start 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate project.
9, equipment: 50% / three high three
Lithium-ion equipment first appeared in Japan and South Korea, but China's lithium battery industry has gained a leading edge in the market after nearly 15 years of technology introduction and learning. At present, the level of localization has reached 50%, and the share is still rising. It is expected to increase to 80% by 2020. It can be said that the era of lithium battery manufacturing in China has arrived.
It is worth mentioning that in order to meet the urgent requirements for the transformation and upgrading of lithium battery manufacturing, lithium battery equipment will move toward high precision (increasing the gap between actual value and target value) and high stability (the average time between failures of single machine is longer and longer) High speed (increased production efficiency) and automation (improved production efficiency), unmanned (reduced labor costs, reduced human error), digital (on-line monitoring and data collection for important aspects of lithium battery production).
10, fire explosion: over 50
The frequent occurrence of safety accidents is undoubtedly a major "defect" in the rapid development of the lithium battery industry. Since 2016, lithium battery factory fires and explosions (about 18), electric buses and small cars have occurred frequently (multiple), and even smart phones represented by Samsung Note7 (up to 35 in the world), charging treasure, Elevation accidents such as balancing cars and electronic cigarettes (and many more) are also in the ear, and the lithium battery industry has sounded the alarm again and again.
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