· The collapse in oil prices will lead countries to review new energy subsidy policies

Solarbuzz analysts of global new energy information provider pointed out that in the field of new energy, all sectors did not agree with the drop in oil prices before October last year. Various kinds of prices are directly related to crude oil prices, and even the macro economy itself is more concerned, and the world has not yet There are obvious cases of adjustments to new energy policies due to falling oil prices. However, after entering the fourth quarter of last year, various concerns began to increase. Recently, global new energy companies have announced quarterly and annual reports, and many organizations are not optimistic about this.
In the latest wind energy research report, Bloomberg analysts pointed out that the development of new energy sources is based on environmental protection needs and has received subsidies from governments or industries. However, in the context of low oil prices and traditional energy competitiveness, governments may also Will reduce subsidies, which will undoubtedly make these industries worse. The report said that even industries such as wind energy that should be relatively less affected by oil prices may be affected. The latest report of the Global Wind Energy Council predicts that although the global installed capacity of wind power will continue to grow from 2013 to 2018, the growth rate of new installed capacity will actually decline in 2015 after reaching a high of 34% in 2014. To 7.8%, the growth rate for the next three years will be below 10%.
UBS pointed out that although from the perspective of industrial capital, the decline in oil prices does not necessarily lead to a reduction in demand for installed electricity such as photovoltaics and wind power, nor does it mean that countries will reduce new energy subsidies. However, from the perspective of capital markets, the collapse of oil prices means that traditional energy sources are cheaper than new energy sources, which will lead countries to re-examine existing subsidies for new energy sources. The direction of energy subsidies is gradually reduced, and in the capital market, the downward trend in oil prices may accelerate this change.
Since November last year, the US stocks of photovoltaics, wind power and new energy vehicles have declined. Since then, global new energy concept stocks have experienced varying degrees of decline. According to Bloomberg analysts, in addition to the downside of oil prices, new energy stocks such as photovoltaics have risen too much since 2012 and have lost support from fundamental factors, so they are also adjusting when oil prices fall.
Business is forced to integrate Reuters pointed out that under the pressure of heavy oil prices, some new energy companies with relatively single business can only wait and see, and expect oil prices to rise again. However, other cross-industry and strong companies have begun to “broken their arms to survive”, or reduce investment in larger businesses, or open up new markets and seek new opportunities.
The US photovoltaic giant SunEdison used to be dominated by the traditional solar business and the North American market. However, its development strategy began to change after November last year, and this is the period when oil prices accelerated and plummeted. In November last year, it and its power generation company TerraForm Power jointly announced the acquisition of the US First Wind Energy Company, the price of up to 2.4 billion US dollars.
SunEdison emphasized that the acquisition of the US First Wind Power Company will provide SunEdison with a stable foothold in the US wind power market and help SunEdison become a diversified renewable energy group. It will also be a transformation for the first wind power itself. . From a business perspective, the acquisition of First Wind Power means that the installed capacity of SunEdison will increase from 1.6-1.8GW to 2.1-2.3GW in 2015. Each GW of electricity can meet the electricity needs of 750,000 households.
Since last year, SunEdison has increased its investment in China, the United Kingdom, the Philippines and other countries in Asia and Europe. At the beginning of this year, it announced the injection of 4 billion US dollars to establish the world's largest solar photovoltaic manufacturing plant in India, which has attracted the attention of the industry. SunEdison said its joint venture in India will produce ultra-low-cost solar panels that are extremely cost-effective to compete with fossil fuels without additional subsidies. The new plant is scheduled to be completed in three years and is expected to create more than 20,000 jobs.
Insiders pointed out that SunEdison increased investment in these markets, on the one hand, it valued its broad business opportunities, and on the other hand, it was to avoid the impact of factors such as falling oil prices, and relatively reduce the proportion of previous major businesses.
The new energy vehicle industry is actively seeking new energy vehicles. Since 2013, it has received widespread attention worldwide, but its heat has cooled significantly last year. Credit Suisse analysts have predicted that if oil prices remain above $80 a barrel, the development of new energy vehicles will have more commercial prospects, but the current oil price is only about $50 per barrel. If oil prices continue to slump, the driving costs of traditional cars will be lower, which will shake the determination of some consumers to buy new energy vehicles, and may also reduce the subsidies received by new energy vehicles, and ultimately drag down their market recognition and marketization process.
The latest data shows that in 2013, new energy vehicles such as hybrid vehicles are booming, and automakers are increasing their investment and research and development. However, in 2014, due to the sharp drop in oil prices, consumers began to prefer to purchase larger vehicles such as SUVs. Hybrid car sales increased by 4.2% year-on-year in the first 11 months of last year, while pickup truck sales increased by 5.4%, SUV sales increased by 11.7%, and hybrid car leader Toyota Prius sales decreased by 15.8%.
Analysts pointed out that in this context, the field of new energy vehicles is clearly "seeking change." Many companies have begun to shift their focus from previous hybrid or pure electric vehicles to fuel cell vehicles, and strive to enhance the technical content of the relevant models. Toyota Motor said recently that it will increase its fuel cell vehicle "MIRAI" capacity by more than four times by 2017. It plans to expand the factory in Aichi Prefecture to increase the speed of fuel cell vehicles in Japan and abroad. Toyota also said that it will freely disclose patents related to fuel cell vehicles by the end of 2020, which will prompt the participation of major auto companies. Focusing on automotive-related companies, investment in fuel cell vehicle-related equipment is expected to expand further.
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. recently released its new generation of fuel cell vehicles at the North American International Auto Show, and is expected to be officially launched next year. Honda said that compared to the fuel cell vehicle launched in 2008, the fuel cell of the new generation is reduced by a third, but the power provided is increased by 60%, and the cruising range is expected to exceed 300 miles. The new generation of fuel cell vehicles will also provide more interior space for five people and a better acceleration response.

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