According to statistics from the Hainan Provincial Bureau of Land Reclamation, the severe drought-stricken area in the entire reclamation area has reached more than 500,000 mu. The draught-cut farm rubber tree cutting rate is less than 50%, and the existing 150,000 mu grassland has not been cut. The output has decreased by 10,000 tons year-on-year.
According to the reporter's knowledge, only 30% to 40% of the gum trees that can be cut at the current Xipei farm in Hainan County have a daily output of only 3 to 4 tons, compared with 6 to 7 tons in previous years. Dongxing Farm in the east is better off, but its output is only half that of previous years. It is understood that the drought in the western region is more serious than in the east, and the main producing area of â€‹â€‹natural rubber is in the central and western regions of Hainan.
According to farmers, the drought will certainly affect the production of natural rubber this year. However, due to the recent tapping season, the extent of the impact of drought on annual production is still difficult to determine. If it can rain after May, and has been well-adjusted, coupled with the farm to strengthen management, may be able to make up for lost production. However, Hainan's rain mainly depends on typhoons, and typhoon-prone seasons will reach July, August and September. Therefore, the drought is likely to continue.
Drought has greatly delayed the time for the listing of natural rubber in Hainan. According to the normal situation in previous years, there should be 500 to 1,000 tons of new plastic listed every day, and the amount of pending orders in the spot market in Hainan is only 100 tons per day.
Hainan is the largest production area of â€‹â€‹natural rubber in China. There are more than 600,000 mu of farming trees and privately-owned plastic trees in the province, and the output accounts for more than half of the country's total production. Among them, the Hainan Agricultural Reclamation has 362 million mu of rubber gardens, with an annual output of 230,000 tons of dry glue, accounting for more than 40% of the national total.
In view of the severe drought in Hainan affected the opening of domestic natural rubber and may affect production, the reporter interviewed some downstream tire companies and relevant industry insiders yesterday. They all believed that the incident currently has little impact on the downstream industry.
According to the analysis of downstream users, the annual supply of domestic natural rubber is about 550,000 tons, accounting for only 1/3 of the consumption. More business demand depends on imports. Since last year, the country has already cancelled the import quota for natural rubber, and the import of natural rubber is currently not restricted. If the domestic output declines, companies can use imported rubber to supplement. Second, at present, the domestic radial tire output has exceeded 50% of the total tire production. The domestic natural rubber is mainly No. 5 rubber, which does not apply to radial tire production. Therefore, it has little effect on the production and consumption of radial tires. Third, the current output of synthetic rubber is also expanding, which can replace natural rubber. Fourth, statistics show that this year's international natural rubber supply is relatively abundant. This year's natural rubber prices can also be reflected. Until now, the price of domestic natural rubber has been between 12,000 yuan and 13,000 yuan/ton, compared with 14,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan/ton in the same period last year. In addition, after the large stocks of the Shanghai futures market entered circulation last year, it has not been completely digested by the market so that downstream companies have not yet felt the shortage of natural rubber resources.
However, industry insiders also reminded that if the drought persists in Hainan, causing the domestic natural rubber production to decline more, it may cause natural rubber prices to rise, thus squeezing the profits of downstream companies.
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