International oil prices have continued to fall, and the nodes of domestic refined oil prices have also been approaching. Yesterday, major oil analysis organizations released data saying that this weekend or the largest range of refined oil products since 2009 fell.
According to Zhuo Chuang Information, the current rate of change in crude oil in the three places is -6.79%. According to the regulations of the National Development and Reform Commission, the rate of change of the three places will reach -4%, and the domestic oil price will be lowered by 22 working days from the last price adjustment. In the last week, the rate of change in the three places has reached -4%. By this Friday, the conditions of "the last price adjustment of 22 working days" will be met. At that time, the product oil reduction window will officially begin. The NDRC is expected to The price of refined oil products is regulated. Another product analysis company, Xiangwang Energy, also announced its estimated rate of change, which was 7.13%, and also reached the price adjustment standard.
Chen Qing, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, said that the current Brent and WTI oil prices are $98.43/barrel and $83.23/barrel, respectively. If the international oil price remains in the current state, the rate of change in the three markets will fall below -9% by June 8. At that time, the downward adjustment is expected to reach 750 yuan / ton. According to estimates, the price of refined oil will fall by 600~650 yuan/ton. As of this Friday, the highest gasoline price will be lowered by 0.58 yuan / liter, and the number 0 diesel will be lowered by 0.64 yuan / liter. Chen Qing said that the current gasoline price of No. 93 gasoline in Chongqing is: 7.80 yuan / liter, after falling 0.58 yuan / liter, its price is expected to reach 7.22 yuan / liter. “This oil price is the closest to 7.19 yuan/liter at the beginning of 2011.†Chen Qing analyzed that the price adjustment is expected to restore oil prices to the level of early 2011.
The reporter immediately found at the gas stations in Jiulongpo, Beibei and Nan'an, and there were no more preferential policies for local gas stations. At Longfeng’s gas station in Banan, the reporter learned that its preferential policy has not changed much compared with the beginning of the month. It is still a gift of 400 yuan for a value of 10 yuan. "If you count various activities, consumers can enjoy 3% oil price concessions." At Shell's gas stations in Beibei and Yubei, the staff told reporters that their gasoline is reduced by 0.2 yuan / liter, diesel is reduced by 0.1 yuan. The policy of /L is still continuing. If you charge 2,000 yuan for IC card, you can also enjoy 1% discount.
Zhang Bin, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that since the end of last month, international crude oil has entered a downward trend, the expectation of lowering domestic oil prices is getting bigger and bigger. For more than half a month, the wholesale price of domestic refined oil products has been falling. . The gas station also made a lot of preferential activities in the early stage. At present, it is near the node where the refined oil is lowered. The impact of the expected decline in refined oil on the market has been digested recently.
In July, CPI is expected to fall by 1%?
According to estimates, the average oil price fell by 10% and the CPI would fall by 1%.
According to the current domestic oil price drop of 0.58 yuan / liter, the oil price is expected to fall by about 7.4%, corresponding to the CPI or a decrease of 0.7 percentage points. "But the impact of oil prices on CPI will not be reflected this month." Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University, believes that the proportion of refined oil prices in CPI is not high, but as the "blood" of economic operation, the price of oil is lowered. It is conducive to reducing the transportation cost of goods. In general, it will indirectly affect CPI.
Zhang Jianlin, chairman of Chongqing Bihai Hongsheng Logistics Co., Ltd. said that as oil prices continue to fall, their transportation costs are greatly reduced. A truck can even reduce fuel costs by 500 to 600 yuan. “This will have an impact on the price of vegetables and fruits.†Zhu Huichuang, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, said that vegetable prices are expected to fall again this month.
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