Throughout 2011, in the shadow of the financial crisis, with the European debt crisis, the United States and Other multinational credit ratings have been lowered, and inflation in emerging market countries has intensified, the international environment faces new uncertainties and complexities. At the same time, the state puts the price hikes at the top of economic work. Under this request, a series of measures such as raising the deposit reserve ratio, raising interest rates, housing purchases, and appreciation of the renminbi have come one after another. Many SMEs are facing capital and market shrinkage. The pressure of product destocking. As an emerging industry, the LED lighting industry is affected by both the international and domestic environment and its industry specificity.
International: European debt crisis spread global economic rebalancing In December 2009, the world's three major rating agencies downgraded Greece's sovereign rating, Greece's debt crisis has intensified, and opened the Pandora's box of the European debt crisis. Subsequently, the crisis spread to Belgium, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and other countries, while the euro zone's pillars France and Germany's sovereign debt also encountered challenges, the debt crisis began to spread from the peripheral countries of the euro zone to the core countries, and even analysts It is predicted that the euro zone will be dissolved and the global economy is shrouded in the shadow of European debt.
In fact, behind the European debt crisis, there is a deeper level of competition. That is, the United States and Europe are launching a battle for currency dominance and debt resources. In fact, the United States continues the structural power conferred by its financial currency hegemony. Since the birth of the euro, the euro has been the most powerful potential competitor in the world, challenging the dollar hegemony system. As a result, US rating agencies have continuously lowered the sovereign credit ratings of Greece, Ireland, and Belgium, taking turns to create turmoil in the European debt crisis, and aggressively shorting the euro. The US dollar uses safe-haven attributes and staged strengths to make a large return of capital to the United States. The winners of this crisis, including US Treasury bonds, US stocks and other institutional bonds, are highly sought after.
The impact of the European debt crisis on China is short-term and limited. The main impacts are as follows. The first is the impact on exports, which led to a decline in economic growth in the euro zone countries. The EU is China's largest export market, and its current share of China's export market is between 18 and 21. Therefore, if foreign demand from the EU declines, trade protectionism will rise and the export situation will not be optimistic. Secondly, the European debt crisis has caused global risk aversion to increase, funds have returned to the US dollar, China has faced short-term capital from inflow to outflow, investment has slowed down, and economic growth has been affected. If the RMB continues to appreciate, or China has introduced stimulus policies, It will lead to more short-term capital inflows, putting more pressure on domestic inflation and asset prices.
Domestic: tightening policy, economic environment makes the market colder In 2011, CPI has been running at a high level, and it gradually declined at the end of the year. The rise in prices has affected people's lives. It has also stung the hearts of the Prime Minister. The government has successively introduced monetary tightening policies, which have led to the exhaustion of liquidity, the slowdown in economic growth, and the sharp rise in the financing costs of SMEs.
On January 26, 2011, the Eight Kingdoms of New China was born, and the central government determined the regulation policy of the Eight Buildings. Among them, it is explicitly proposed to prohibit the purchase of multi-family purchasers, and more than 40 cities across the country have also introduced commercial housing purchase restrictions. Under the control of the policy, the housing market after entering November finally showed a turning point in house prices. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, house prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by an average of 0.14 in October, the first time since 2011. Some cities have experienced check-outs. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national housing boom index hit a 28-month low of only 99.87 in November, close to the 99.68 figure in the October 2008 global financial crisis. This series of intensive regulation and control policies has made the once profitable real estate industry fall into the autumn. The LED lighting industry associated with real estate has also suffered a setback, and the economy is no longer.
Affected by inflation, the rise in labor costs and logistics costs has also plagued the development of enterprises, and the production costs have increased by two to 30%.
Although the cost of LED enterprises has increased significantly, due to the economic downturn and fierce competition in the industry, most companies' products are hard to raise prices. In order to maintain the normal operation of the factory, they can only bear the fact that profits are getting thinner.
LED lighting: The landscape has a good predicament and many LED lighting industries as emerging industries. What is the performance under this complicated economic situation?
On June 9 last year, Guangzhou Guangya Exhibition, which is known as the first exhibition of global lighting, was held at the Guangzhou Convention and Exhibition Center. From the hot booth sales, the dazzling array of products, and the visitors who looked at the shoulders, the LED lighting industry was not affected at all. A thriving scene. Taking this opportunity, the author also communicated with many manufacturers and industry experts. The overall feeling is: LED lighting industry has a good scenery, but there are many difficulties.
The LED lighting industry has a unique landscape, mainly reflected in the lighting industry and LED large enterprises. For example, Ronda's vertically integrated business model has worked and entered the international supply chain, thus successfully making up for the weak performance in the backlight market. Lite-On said it has signed a strategic alliance contract with six lighting factories. In the future, LED lighting sources and LED lighting modules will be supplied, and Changzhou Jingpin Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. will be officially put into operation in September 2011. In the next five years, China's LED lighting market will reach 7.6 billion US dollars. Due to China's complete lighting production base and supply chain, coupled with the domestic demand market potential, many manufacturers are optimistic about the development of China's LED lighting market and accelerate the layout, including crystal power. In cooperation with Sunshine Lighting and NVC Lighting, Yiguang teamed up with Shanghai Yaming, and cooperated with NVC Lighting.
There is also a lighting brand manufacturer Philips recently announced the establishment of LED lighting factory in Chengdu, is also the second large investment in Philips in China. In addition, LED manufacturers such as Guangbao and Ronda are also actively entering the international supply chain. All the targets are continuing to increase the proportion of lighting products revenue, stepping up the training, and laying out the lighting market early.
Recently, the state's macro-control policies have shown signs of fine-tuning, but real estate regulation continues to deepen. I believe that many small and medium-sized LED lighting companies are facing the already-satisfied 2012. The appreciation of the renminbi, the rising cost of employment and materials, the difficulty of financing, and the national control policy are all in their hearts. More international brands and the first echelon companies rely on technology, channels, brands and other advantages, and continue to grow bigger and stronger under the operation of listing, mergers and acquisitions, etc., reflecting the phenomenon of Hengda Evergrande.
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