The pharmaceutical industry is expected to usher in long-term development in 2008

As an everlasting sunrise industry, the pharmaceutical industry has maintained high growth. In the past 20 years, the compound growth rate of the total output value of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has reached 17.3%, which is about twice the growth rate of GDP. In the stock market, the pharmaceutical sector has achieved a higher premium level.
Although there is considerable adjustment pressure in the short-term medical sector, we believe that the investment value of the pharmaceutical industry is that its high-speed growth is expected to bring high returns to investors in the future. The long-term high-growth foundation of the pharmaceutical industry is constantly growing, and its growth is expected to exceed the compound growth rate of 17.3% over the past 20 years. This inference is based on the rapid development of the pharmaceutical industry in the past two years and the opportunities that this year's national policy has brought to the pharmaceutical industry.
In 2007, the pharmaceutical industry ushered in recovery growth. From the industry statistics, the industry's revenue and profits have increased significantly. In 2007, the pharmaceutical industry realized a total profit of 10.995 billion yuan, an increase of 62.98% over 2006, creating the largest increase in the past 7 years, but the profit structure has some concerns: In 2007, operating profits accounted for the proportion of total profits from 91.3 in 2006. % dropped to 65%, investment income increased to 24.83%; net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses accounted for 62.6% of net profit increased to 82.91%, the quality of profits increased significantly. As the country continues to increase medical reform efforts, the pharmaceutical industry will continue to maintain rapid development this year.
Health Care Reform Brings New Opportunities for Development Medical system reform has become the most important policy factor affecting the pharmaceutical industry in 2008. During the "two sessions" this year, discussions on the reform of the new medical system became a hot topic. From the standpoint of the leaders of the Ministry of Health, the new medical reform plan will soon be formally introduced. The government will also formulate and implement the "Healthy China 2020" strategy, that is, by 2020 it will establish a basic health care system that covers the entire people and achieve universal access to basic medical and health services. The main task of the reform is to improve and improve the public health service system, medical service system, medical security system, and drug supply system. Its core content is that the government plays the role of undertaking basic medical and health services for the entire people, increasing investment in the basic healthcare system; opening up the medical service market, encouraging social capital to enter, establishing a multi-level medical security system, and reforming the hospital management system and drug circulation. Links to realize the separation of medicines.
In the past, the coverage of the medical security system was low. Apart from the publicly-funded medical services that a few people enjoyed, only the basic medical insurance for urban workers was used, and the medical security of rural residents and urban residents was left blank. In 2002, the central government proposed the establishment of a new rural cooperative medical system and began piloting in some areas. According to the plan, 2008 was a year of full coverage of the “New Rural Cooperatives”. At the same time, subsidies for participating farmers at all levels of finance have also been increased from 40 yuan per person per year to 80 yuan per person per year. Farmers’ individual contributions are paid annually by each person. 10 yuan to 20 yuan.
The basic medical insurance for urban residents is mainly for urban minors and non-working residents who do not participate in medical insurance for urban employees. Starting from 2007, pilot projects are planned to be implemented gradually throughout the country in 3 years. The basic medical insurance for urban residents is mainly based on family payment, and the government provides appropriate subsidies. The subsidy level for all insured residents in pilot cities is not less than 40 yuan per person. For minors in difficult groups, the government will, in principle, increase the subsidy no less than 10 yuan per capita per year; the difficulties for adult residents The government will provide an additional subsidy no less than 60 yuan per person per year. In addition, for the central and western regions, the central government will appropriately increase subsidies.
The above basic medical insurance for urban employees, the new rural cooperative medical system, and basic medical insurance for urban residents will constitute the three pillars of the universal medical security system. At the same time, the country’s investment in health care continues to grow at a rapid rate, from 6.4 billion yuan in 2005 to 83.2 billion yuan in 2008, a 13-fold increase in four years. The increase in government investment will inevitably lead to an increase in people's demand for medicine, which will bring new opportunities for the development of the pharmaceutical industry.
It is suggested that the healthcare beneficiaries and the medical sub-sectors benefit from different degrees of medical reform. The vaccine and medical device industry will be the biggest beneficiaries, and pharmaceutical commercial enterprises will welcome integration opportunities in the pharmaceutical circulation reform.
First, vaccine manufacturers will benefit from increased market demand for immune products. According to the “Implementation Plan for Expanding National Immunization Program”, since 2007, the government has expanded the scope of the national immunization plan vaccine, based on the existing national immunization plan vaccine, based on the existing hepatitis A vaccine, meningitis vaccine, Japanese encephalitis vaccine, measles mumps rubella. Joint vaccines and cell-free DPT vaccines have been included in the national immunization program to provide vaccination to school-age children. Epidemic hemorrhagic fever vaccine, anthrax vaccine and leptospirosis vaccination are applied to key populations in epidemic areas in accordance with epidemiological trends. Inoculation of these vaccines can prevent 15 infectious diseases. The "plan" put forward four indicators of work: First, the township as the unit to 2010, hepatitis B vaccine, BCG, polio vaccine, Baidubai vaccine, measles vaccine, the age of school-age children inoculation rate reached 90% or more; two to 2010 In the year, meningitis vaccine, Japanese encephalitis vaccine and hepatitis A vaccine strive to popularize vaccination of school-age children nationwide; third, the vaccination rate of target population for hemorrhagic fever vaccine should reach 70%; Fourth, anthrax vaccine and leptospira vaccine emergency vaccination The target population's vaccination rate reached more than 70%. These policies will bring about an increase in the demand for vaccines and the vaccine industry will usher in a new growth period. Therefore, we are optimistic about the prospects for the development of biological products such as Hualan Biological.
Similarly, the animal vaccine industry will also benefit from policy changes. In 2007, with the outbreak of highly pathogenic PRRS, the state’s prevention and control of animal diseases has been stepped up. The government has included 14 types of infectious diseases and PRRS in national compulsory immunization, and related Vaccination costs are also paid by the government. As more than 10 kinds of animal vaccines will enter local bidding and procurement in the next few years, the entire animal vaccine market will maintain rapid growth. In addition, the animal vaccine industry has high barriers to entry and high industry concentration, showing a pattern of competition among oligarchs. We still give the "recommendation" rating to the leading enterprises in the industry, China Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. and Jinyu Group. At the same time, we recommend that investors pay attention to companies with Tiankang Biological, with regional advantages.
Under the background of the reform of the new medical system, the government will rebuild primary medical service organizations. In the future, there will be larger government orders for procurement of equipment and equipment for primary medical units, such as X-ray machines, disinfection and sterilization equipment, and sanitary materials. Wandong Medical and Xinhua Medical in the listed companies all have high industry status and will benefit from government procurement in the future.
Among pharmaceutical companies, we are still optimistic about specialty drug manufacturers. The so-called specialty drugs are products with certain barriers, such as patented drugs, exclusive first generic drugs, and drugs with brand value. The companies that produce these drugs have very good growth, such as chemical drug companies with R&D capabilities (Haizheng Pharmaceutical, Hengrui Pharmaceutical, Huahai Pharmaceutical, etc.), branded Chinese medicine companies (Pien Tze Huang, Yunnan Baiyao, etc.), and OTC dominant companies. (Sanjiu Pharmaceutical, Jiangcai, Sanjing Pharmaceutical). For general drug companies, we believe that they will benefit from medical reform as a whole. However, due to the low barriers to entry of generic drugs, the control of product prices, and the lack of product differentiation, the investment opportunities in the generic drug sector appear to be less attractive.
Pharmaceutical commercial enterprises will face new integration in medical reform, and the process will strengthen the right of business to speak in the pharmaceutical industry. We believe that some generic drug manufacturers will become the foundries of pharmaceuticals and commerce. The value of the business lies in the control of the terminal. However, can the “Pharmaceutical Separation” allow the pharmaceutical business to control the hospital's pharmacy? From the current situation, there are still many problems in the pharmacy hosting model. A commercial enterprise operating a hospital pharmacy does not solve the problem of high drug prices in itself, but merely transfers benefits. We are still optimistic about the pharmaceutical enterprises with scale advantages, such as Sinopharm, Sinopharm, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals and Guangzhou Pharmaceutical.

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