Recent petrochemical prices will enter a downward path

In August, with the exception of fertiliser and other products, prices remained slightly higher, most petrochemicals prices fell from rising to falling, and individual varieties suffered a larger decline. Affected by the fall in crude oil prices and the downturn in downstream industries, it is expected that the prices will fluctuate in the near future. In the lower.
The prices of plastics and other synthetic materials have fallen sharply. In August, the average prices of high-pressure polyethylene, polypropylene, PVC, and polyester chips in 36 large and medium-sized cities were 1.4153 million yuan, 13,818 yuan, 8603 yuan, and 121.82 million yuan, respectively, compared with July, four. The prices of these products dropped by 5.89%, 6.93%, 0.96%, and 2.02%, respectively, and they increased by 9.54%, 11.41%, 9.85%, and 3.91% respectively compared with the same period of last year.
Due to the fall in commodity prices such as crude oil, the sluggish demand in the upstream industry and the implementation of macroeconomic control policies, it is expected that the overall price of petrochemical products will show a slight downward trend during the fluctuations.
Crude oil prices have been significantly adjusted, and the pressure on petrochemical products to pass on downstream costs has eased. Over the past month or so, international crude oil prices have fallen sharply. The recent contract closing price of WTI crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to a five-month low of $109.35 on September 3 after setting a record high of $147.27 per barrel on July 11, a cumulative drop of 26% from the record high. . Although the current market has some differences in the future trend of oil prices, but overall, the world's major economies have the risk of economic growth, the demand for oil may decline, and crude oil prices are unlikely to hit new highs within the year. The cost pressure in the petrochemical industry has been relatively eased.
The downturn in the downstream industry has led to weak demand. Recently, due to the decline in car sales, the demand for plastics and synthetic rubber used in automobiles has shrunk significantly. According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, since the beginning of March this year, China’s auto sales have decreased for five consecutive months, of which domestic passenger vehicles sold a total of 482,200 vehicles in July, a decrease of 17.02% from the previous month. As auto parts packaging bags, automobile bodies, interiors, and bumpers all require the use of various types of plastics, the downturn in the auto industry will affect the demand for chemical raw materials and products. With the loss of China's tires' "low-cost, low-price" advantages and deteriorating export environment, the growth rate of China's tire exports has fallen sharply. According to the latest customs statistics, in the first half of this year, China’s total exports of tires were 160 million, an increase of 4.6% over the same period of last year, and the growth rate dropped by 17.6%.
The impact of macroeconomic policies on the future trend of petrochemical products cannot be underestimated. From September 1, special export tariffs on nitrogenous fertilizers and synthetic ammonia have been raised to 150%, and will be implemented until the end of this year. From October 1st to December 31st, a special export tariff of 100% will continue to be imposed on other fertilizers and fertilizers other than the above two products. The implementation of these policies will, to some extent, increase the domestic supply of chemical fertilizers and curb price increases. For chemical fiber companies, the policy of increasing the rebate rate of some textiles and apparel from 11% to 13% from August 1st will help stimulate the export of textiles and garments, thereby improving the upstream chemical fiber products in the short term. demand.

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