The central bank announced last weekend that starting today, the deposit reserve ratio will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points, which will release about 400 billion yuan for the market. This change is a small plus for the auto industry, which has been suppressed for one year. This year's domestic "focus on expanding domestic demand is not a consumer demand" tone, will also benefit the car, the first consumer demand.
People in the auto industry expect that car consumption will be the first to “relaxâ€, even as the country’s stimulating domestic demand as in the end of 2008 and early 2009.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the commodity retail industry in 2011, the automobile category increased by 14.6%, and the growth rate dropped by 20.2 percentage points from the previous year, which is the industry with the largest decline.
Macro interest rate is still good
This is the second reduction since the central bank cut the deposit reserve ratio for the first time in three years since December 5, and it is the first time this year. Economic analysts believe that this downgrade also confirms that the deposit reserve ratio will enter a downward adjustment cycle. One of the reasons for the RRR cut is that the real economy has a downward trend. The country's real estate prices have fallen across the board. Major industries such as steel, machinery and automobiles are basically in a process of tightening. The downward adjustment is to ease the downward pressure on the economy. .
Therefore, the automotive industry generally believes that this policy fine-tuning will be conducive to the improvement of automotive demand, it is expected that January car sales growth will be the low point of the first half. The auto industry has gained momentum this year.
The second positive effect of the macroeconomic layer facing the auto industry is to expand domestic demand. On February 20th, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the government work report. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to "continue to handle the relationship of maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure, and managing inflation expectations, accelerating the transformation of economic development mode and economic restructuring, and focusing on expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand." We must continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and timely and moderately fine-tuning according to changes in the situation."
“Efforts to expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand†will inevitably require the auto industry to maintain a good growth. Automobile sales account for about 20% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, and it is a veritable first consumer demand.
Beijing's new materials are growing substantially
In the first half of last year, due to the withdrawal of incentives such as purchase tax incentives, the impact of national macro-control, the rise in fuel prices, the implementation of the policy of blocking and purchasing in some cities, and the earthquake in Japan, the automobile market was adversely affected, and the growth rate dropped sharply, resulting in the country. The growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods continued to decline.
In January this year, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2011 was 1,812.26 billion yuan, a 17.1% increase over the previous year (the actual increase of 11.6% after deducting the price factor). In the retail of goods, the retail sales of enterprises above designated size (units) was 7.8164 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.2%. Among them, the automobile category increased by 14.6%, and the growth rate dropped by 20.2 percentage points from the previous year, which was the industry with the largest decline.
At the beginning of the year, officials from the Ministry of Commerce predicted that the total retail sales of consumer goods in China will increase by more than 14% in 2012. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the total retail sales of consumer goods was to reach 30 trillion yuan. These all constitute the benefits of the future car market.
After a year of intensive adjustment, the advanced consumption energy of passenger cars has re-accumulated. According to news from Beijing, the first small passenger car index in Beijing was extremely hot in 2012. More than 870,000 application indicators participated in the lottery, and the success rate was a new low of 2.3%. In January this year, the city traded a total of 52,300 new cars, up from twice the same as last year's 17,900.
Cui Dongshu, an analyst at the Association, believes that last year, Beijing added 170,000 new cars, and the restriction on purchases has a huge effect on slowing the growth of possession. However, the new car market in Beijing will be restored to the rated 240,000 units this year. The increase in private car purchases has boosted the number of new cars in Beijing in the first half of the year, compared with less than 60,000 units in the first half of last year. “This kind of abnormal multiplication is an important contribution to the increase of the auto market, which also drives the growth of the national auto market to return to a faster level.â€
“Although China’s economy continued to be in a soft landing in 2012, the passenger vehicle market has recovered in advance.†Rao Da, secretary general of the Association, expects that the domestic sales of domestically produced vehicles will reach 18.56 million units, an increase of 12%.
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