In the first half of 2011, the growth rate of China's machinery industry stabilized

Since 2011, in the face of the complex and ever-changing international and domestic economic situation, the machinery industry has conscientiously implemented the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adjusted and revitalized plans for the equipment manufacturing industry and the automobile industry, and the development of the "12th Five-Year Plan" machinery industry. Under the guidance of the overall plan, the overall economic performance of the machinery industry has achieved steady growth, total profits have increased, and foreign trade has rebounded significantly. At the same time, some new changes have also taken place in the first half of the year, mainly due to the fact that the growth rate of investment in fixed assets in the industry has continued to accelerate, the growth rate of production and sales and profit has continued to slow, the growth rate of new orders has dropped, the pressure on corporate costs has risen significantly, and supply exceeds demand. There are signs of intensification of contradictions, all of which highlight the urgency of structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading.

Based on the comprehensive analysis, it is expected that in 2011 the industry's production and sales will still maintain double-digit growth, with the growth rate at around 20%, but the industry profit margin will be significantly lower than in 2010, and the trade deficit will reappear. Faced with a series of new challenges in the international and domestic economic situation, in order to maintain the sustained and healthy development of the industry, the industry must accelerate the pace of structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading.

First, the main features of the mechanical industry in the first half of the year

(I) Steady and rapid growth in production and sales, steady increase in growth

In the first half of the year, the machinery industry completed its total industrial output value and sales value of 7.88 trillion yuan and 7.69 trillion yuan respectively, an increase of 27.08% and 26.73% year-on-year respectively. Among them, the first five months of production and sales growth rate fell month by month, the month of June growth stabilized, and achieved sales of 1.56 trillion yuan and 1.52 trillion yuan, both set a record high.

In the first half of the year, the value-added of the machinery industry increased by 16.2% year-on-year, which was higher than that of the national industry by 1.9 percentage points over the same period, but fell sharply compared with the increase in the same period of last year. In terms of proportion, the proportion of value-added of machinery industry in the national industry since 2011 has increased month by month, from 18.33% in January to February to 18.74% in January to June, and it has always topped the list.

(II) Achieve continuous growth of total profit, and lower profit margin of main business income

From January to May, the machinery industry realized a total profit of 427.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.41%, a sharp fall of 63.72 percentage points compared with the increase of the same period of last year. The accumulative growth rate for each month since 2011 has been falling month by month.

The profit rate of main business income decreased from 7.16% in January to November 2010 to 6.98% in January to May 2011, which was a decrease of 0.27 percentage point from the same period of last year.

(III) Growth rate of investment in fixed assets returned to high levels

From 2004 to 2009, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets of the machinery industry has been maintained at around 40%, and it fell back to 30% in 2010. However, since 2011, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets in the machinery industry has continued to rise. In June, it returned to a high of 40%. In the first half of the year, the total investment in fixed assets completed was 11,867 billion yuan, an increase of 41.77% over the same period of last year, which was higher than the national investment in urban and manufacturing industries by 16.17 and 9.37 percentage points respectively. In terms of sub-industries, the industries with relatively large investment accounts for 26.36% of the electrical and electronic appliances, 22.41% of the automotive industry, and 10.44% of the machine tool industry. The investment growth of these industries is higher than the average of the machinery industry.

(IV) The import growth rate is higher than that of exports, and the foreign trade continued to have a deficit in 2011.

From January to May, the machinery industry realized a total of 247 billion U.S. dollars in import and export trade, an increase of 29.61% year-on-year. Among them, exports were US$122.2 billion, up 27.79%; imports were US$124.8 billion, up 31.45%. In the first five months of 2011, the import growth rate of the machinery industry fell month by month, but it was always higher than the growth rate of exports during the same period. Foreign trade has been in a deficit state. From January to May, the cumulative foreign trade deficit was 2.593 billion U.S. dollars.

(5) The output of most products continues to grow, and the production and sales of automobiles are significantly cooled

Of the 119 products in the statistics, there were 102 kinds of year-on-year growth in the first half of the year, accounting for 86% of the total number of reports, of which 80 were in double digits. Although the growth rate of major types of construction machinery has declined significantly, it has also maintained a growth rate of around 30%; CNC metal cutting machine tools have increased by 44.99%; power generating equipment has increased by 22.03%. Automobile products are affected by policy adjustments and cooling demand, and the growth rate of production and sales has declined significantly. In the first half of the year, the production and sales volume of automobiles only increased by 2.48% and 3.35% year-on-year, of which the production and sales volume of basic passenger cars (sedans) were 4,921,800 and 4,955,500, respectively, which were an increase of 7.03% and 8.02% respectively.

(VI) New progress in product structure adjustment

In the first half of 2011, among the power generation equipment products, the growth rates of clean and efficient generator sets such as wind power and hydropower were significantly faster than thermal power. The output of wind turbines increased by 51.32% year-on-year, the hydro-generators increased by 20.06%; the proportion of wind power equipment in the entire power generation equipment reached 12.86%, an increase of 3.72% over the same period of last year, and the proportion of thermal power equipment was 66.08%. The year-on-year decline was 5.38 percentage points.

Among the machine tool products, the output of CNC cutting machine tools and numerical control devices was significantly faster than that of ordinary machine tools, and the numerical control rate continued to increase. The output of CNC gold-cutting machine tools increased by 44.99% year-on-year, faster than the growth rate of all the gold-cutting machine tools by 21.26 percentage points. The production of CNC gold-cutting machine tools accounted for 30.4% of the entire gold-cutting machine tools from 27.95% in the same period of 2010.

(VII) Enhanced coordination of regional development

Since 2011, regional restructuring of the machinery industry has continued to proceed in the policy direction. From the perspective of output value, the total output value of the machinery industry in the first half of the year was 5.4 trillion yuan, 1.67 trillion yuan, and 0.81 trillion yuan, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 25.15%, 32.75%, and 28.94%, respectively, and the growth rate in the central and western regions increased. The speed continues faster than the east. The share of the machinery industry in the central and western regions increased by 1.19 and 0.24 percentage points respectively over the same period of last year, while that in the eastern region decreased by 1.43 percentage points. From the perspective of investment, the investment in fixed assets in the first half of the year was 688.6 billion yuan, 343.8 billion yuan and 154.4 billion yuan, respectively, and the growth rate of investment in the central and western regions was faster than the 20.08 and 13.36 percentage points in the east respectively.

Second, in the face of challenges, actively promote scientific development

From the main statistical data of the machinery industry in the first half of the year, although the major economic indicators of the industry have achieved steady growth, but the industry is also facing many difficulties and problems.

(I) The cost and expense expenditures rose rapidly, especially the rapid growth of financial expenses and interest expenses as compared to the same period of last year, and the growth rate accelerated month by month.

From January to May, the financial expenses of the machinery industry increased by 39.98% year-on-year, an increase of 28.33 percentage points over the same period of last year. Among them, the growth rate of interest expenses also continued to accelerate the trend. From January to May, the interest expense of machinery industry increased by 38.98% year-on-year, which was an increase of 24.9 percentage points over the same period of last year. It was an important factor driving up the growth of financial expenses.

(B) The continued growth of imports of machinery products has a huge impact on the domestic market

In the past two years, the import growth rate of the machinery industry has been higher than that of exports. In the first half of 2011, the foreign trade of the machinery industry has experienced a continuous deficit. According to the current trend, it is expected that the machinery industry may regain its annual foreign trade deficit after a lapse of six years.

(III) Significant decline in ordering growth of enterprises and significant increase in finished product inventories

From January to May, the ordering amount of key industrial enterprises in the machinery industry increased by only 9.23% year-on-year, showing a continuous decline. Compared with the growth rate of more than 30% in the same period of 2010, it showed a significant drop. At the same time, the growth rate of finished goods inventory and accounts receivable of the machinery industry reached a relatively high level in recent years. From this analysis, the sales situation of mechanical products will be more difficult in the future.

(4) The cost of various factors has risen in an all-round way, and machinery products have been experiencing difficulties under the pressure of oversupply.

While the prices of raw materials, financing costs, and labor costs have risen in an all-round manner, the overall price index of the machinery industry has not exceeded 102%, and the price of a considerable number of key products has continued to decrease. On the one hand, this is mainly due to the slowdown in market demand growth. On the other hand, a large number of redundant constructions have led to over-expansion of production capacity, resulting in vicious competition in the market and falling prices of products. The profit rate of many companies has continued to decline.

The “12th Five-Year Plan” period is a tough time for deepening reforms and accelerating the transformation of economic development methods. Faced with these challenges, the entire industry must resolutely implement the requirements of the scientific development proposed by the Fifth Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee and the 12th Five-Year Plan, and enhance Opportunity awareness and awareness of crisis, scientifically grasp the laws of industrial development, and actively promote structural adjustment.

First, we must have confidence in the revitalization of the machinery industry, but we must not be blindly optimistic. We must not be blindly optimistic about the rapid development in recent years, and we must enhance our awareness of hardships. We must soberly see that the real trials and challenges are coming. Only by raising awareness of hardships will it be conducive to sustainable development.

Second, under the dual pressures of “policy shift” and “cooling demand,” the machinery industry must accelerate its transformation and upgrading. The policy orientation of “maintaining growth” as the main orientation originated after the financial crisis has transformed into the policy orientation of “12th Five-Year Plan” with “transformation and upgrading” as the main orientation; this is closely related to the policy of the first two years of expansion. The rapid growth in demand has been cooling. Under this background, machinery companies must pay more attention to enhancing independent innovation and core competitiveness in order to deal with increasingly severe market challenges.

Third, we must grasp the correct direction of investment in fixed assets. Not only should we pay attention to the improvement of production conditions, but we must also pay attention to the investment in R&D laboratories. The technological transformation of enterprises cannot follow suit, and they cannot hope to “crowd others” and “become later”. They must strive to cultivate the advantages that people cannot.

The fourth is to increase the pace of "going out" and strive to expand exports to ease the lack of domestic orders. Especially in industries where the oversupply of production capacity of automobiles, power transmission and transformation equipment, heavy-duty machine tools and construction machinery is excessive, and the increase in domestic demand is declining, more efforts should be made to expand the international market.

Fifth, we must focus on nurturing the soft power that supports the machinery industry from becoming stronger. The machinery industry has grown from big to strong. It requires not only the investment in hardware conditions, but also the support of soft power. "Soft power" refers not only to technical capabilities but also to quality assurance capabilities. To this end, the industry's backbone enterprises must not only cultivate the technological capabilities of “high-end, high-tech development”, but also cultivate the full-scale quality awareness and meticulous execution of the technological requirements; they must make persistent efforts to create high quality “Made in China”. Brand.

III. Forecast on the running trend of the machinery industry throughout the year

Overall, in the first half of the year, the machinery industry achieved a steady and relatively rapid growth, while the growth rate moderately declined. However, this fall is closely related to the country’s macroeconomic control policy orientation. It is a correction among expectations and the recent growth rate has dropped. The rate has shown signs of slowing down, so we should still have full confidence in the running trend of the year. Comprehensively observe the national macroeconomic development trend and the growth performance achieved by the machinery industry in the first half of the year. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the economic speed of the machinery industry will continue to decline moderately month by month, but it is expected to achieve double-digit growth throughout the year. Among them, the growth rate of production and sales is expected to be around 20%, and the profit growth rate may be slightly lower than the growth rate of production and sales. The export growth is expected to be more than 20%, but the import and export trade may reappear the deficit.