On March 18th, US Eastern Time (March 19, Beijing time), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a research report saying that global food prices will continue to rise steadily, which will lead to an increase in core inflation.
On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund released a research report saying that the Fund's price index is now close to the highest level in June 2008. IMF economists believe that since 2000, the steady and steady increase in food prices seems to be a trend, not just a temporary factor.
The IMF pointed out in its report that the rise in international food prices at the beginning of 2011 has already caused consumer price inflation in many economies. This direct “first round effect†is part of the normal price pass and will fade over time. However, if people expect food prices to continue to rise and demand higher wages, this will lead to a “second round effectâ€, that is, an increase in core inflation.
IMF economists Thomas Helbling and Shaun Roache pointed out that global commodity prices may have to be adjusted to a higher level. The higher demand for food due to bad weather, trade restrictions, the development of biofuels, and the increasing wealth of people have driven the continued rise in food prices. Advances in technology and expansion of food production area will help ease the pressure on the food market, but it will take time. During this transition period, the global market may have to increase food prices.
The report also pointed out that many countries are trying to curb the impact of high food prices. Higher food prices will not only increase poverty and inflation, but also affect the balance of payments of countries that import food. However, the rising risk of core inflation has little effect on advanced economies, but the impact on emerging countries and developing countries is very significant.
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