A few days ago, Zou Huxiao, chairman of the China Road Society Bus Division, said that although the overall performance of the passenger car market in the first half of 2011 was unsatisfactory, there were still some new increases during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, which provided support for the development of bus manufacturing companies, especially buses. This product will be the touchstone for testing the marketing experience and management level of bus companies in the future.
Mixed in the first half
In the first six months of 2011, the first three months of January, March and June showed year-on-year growth, and the second quarter, fourth and fifth quarters decreased year-on-year. The total performance in the first half of the year was lower than the original expectations of the China Road Society Bus Subcommittee.
Specifically, the passenger car sales curve in June suddenly rose. The number of bus companies entering the statistics totaled 21,376 vehicles, an increase of 12.43% year-on-year, temporarily curbing the downward trend since April and May. Driven by the strong data in June, from January to June, 103,912 buses were sold, a year-on-year increase, which rose to 3.31%, which was 2.12% higher than the previous five months.
Despite this, the passenger car market in the first half of the year still has some bright spots. The first is that the performance of large and medium-sized passenger cars is relatively prominent. In the first six months of the year, the cumulative sales price of large and medium-sized passenger cars across the industry was 667,82, a year-on-year increase of 6%, which was much higher than the industry's average increase of 3.31%. In the first half of 2011, the mainstream bus companies shielded light buses from the assessment of sales performance, which effectively promoted the growth of sales of large and medium-sized passenger vehicles and ensured a steady increase in operating performance.
In the first six months of this year, there were 29 buses exported by 50 bus companies, and 12,430 buses were exported, up 32.70% year-on-year, nearly 10 times the industry average. Excluding export factors, the domestic market's year-on-year increase was only 0.3%. It can be seen that although the passenger car exports have encountered an international disorder, the domestic passenger car market situation has become more severe. Judging from the performance of bus companies, there are a total of eight companies that export more than 100 million yuan.
Again, the bus started to force. In June, the number of bus passenger cars sold was 7,318, which accounted for 34.23% of the total passenger car sales. This was an increase of 8.3% from 25.93% of the total sales volume of bus passengers in the first five months, an increase of 40.70% over the same period of last year, and it has supported bus sales in June. The main factor for a substantial increase. Buses are the hope for the passenger car market to go out of its slump, but the fact that bus operators are not of high quality is also a fact. How to seek a balance between sales and performance is a touchstone to test the marketing experience and management level of bus companies.
Happy watching the second half
Zou Huxiao stated that by the end of 2010, the Bus Branch of the China Highway Society had judged that the sales growth of passenger cars in 2011 was within 5%, compared with only 3.31% in the first half of 2011. According to the law of market development, the demand for the bus market in the second half of the year will be higher than the first half. Based on the optimism of the demand for public transport and the growth of passenger car exports, we still maintain the growth rate of 5% or less in the second half of the year.
However, in the second half of the year, the bus market still needs to overcome difficulties from three aspects.
First, the development of the industry has encountered monetary tightening. In the past two years, the bank deposit reserve ratio has been raised for 12 consecutive times, especially in 2011, almost once a month. As of now, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions has reached a record high of 21.5%. The tightening of monetary policy, the bus industry and passenger car users are all affected by the “money shortageâ€, and there is no financial guarantee for the development of enterprises, and the purchase of cars by users is also constrained by the shortage of funds, which is the main reason for the sluggish passenger car industry and passenger car market.
Second, domestic demand suffered a "hot spot" vacuum. Different from the “Olympicsâ€, “Expo†and “Asian Games†hotspots in previous years, in addition to the Shenzhen Universiade, which can count as a small hot spot, there has been a lack of large, radiating hotspot events. The sluggish demand is the source of the downturn in the domestic passenger car market in the first half of the year.
Third, the international situation has not affected the passenger car exports. The economic recovery in the United States was lower than expected, and the debt crisis in Europe was in turmoil. The majority of the five BRICS countries faced inflationary pressures, and the major markets for Chinese bus exports in the Middle East and Africa continued to fluctuate. The instability of the international situation makes it difficult for the passenger car exports to truly emerge from the shadow of the financial crisis in a short period of time, and the export benefits tend to decline.
"Twelve Five" has new needs
According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†of the Ministry of Transport, the passenger car market space during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period is divided into four parts. First, large and medium-sized non-bus passenger vehicles sold a total of 360,000 vehicles during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period. The “12th Five-Year Plan†will focus on structural adjustment, with little increase in domestic and export volumes. Second, rural passenger vehicles, That is, light non-bus cars, the domestic and foreign markets will reach the scale of 500,000 during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period. Third, the number of urban buses and buses, including 480,000 domestic and 40,000 exports, will reach the scale of 520,000. It is the scale of the emerging bus market that will form 50,000 vehicles.
Despite the large economic situation, the growth of the passenger car market in 2011 was slow, but Zou Huxiao stated that it is expected that the total demand of the passenger car market during the “12th Five-Year Plan†will increase by 67.25% over the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, with an annual average of approximately 28.6. 10,000 cars. Overall, there are three major positive factors.
First, the development of rural passenger vehicles is relatively large. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, about 240,000 rural passenger cars will need to be renewed. In addition to the annual (including export) demand, the total demand for rural passenger cars will be around 500,000, and the average annual demand will reach 100,000 vehicles. At present, the annual sales of rural passenger vehicles do not exceed 70,000 vehicles, which has significant room for growth.
Second, the urban bus market will continue to grow at a high rate. According to the "Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan for Urban Public Transport" and the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the total number of public buses and buses in China will reach 600,000, which is about 200,000 more than that in 2010. At the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the number of public buses and buses is about 400,000. The State stipulates that the number of years of retirement for buses and buses should be 10 years, but the actual average number of years for retirement should be about 8 years. According to relevant statistics, 70% of the existing bus fleet will need to be renewed during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, with a total of approximately 280,000 vehicles. The new demand mentioned in the above plan is 200,000 units, plus 280,000 new demand updates. The total demand for public bus during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is 480,000 units, and the average annual demand will reach 96,000 units. The annual sales of passenger cars are only around 60,000 vehicles, and the growth space is very optimistic.
Third, the development of the emerging passenger car market is worth looking forward to, such as the school bus market. The demand for school buses is exact, the painful lessons of school bus accidents and the traffic congestion around the school have put forward urgent requirements for establishing a normal student travel order. Establishing a perfect school bus operating system is the best choice for solving these two major contradictions. In 2010, Beijing has clearly stated that “the development of primary and secondary school vehicle service systems will gradually ease the traffic congestion around primary and secondary schools in the morning and evening rush hourâ€. Relevant information shows that there are 440,000 school buses in the United States, which transport 25 million elementary and middle school students every day, accounting for 54% of the total number of primary and secondary school students. The total population of China is much higher than that of the United States. With the United States as a reference, the total demand for school buses in the future will increase the market space of passenger cars by at least double. The past five years will be the preliminary stage for the development of these emerging bus markets. The total demand for this market is conservatively estimated to be about 50,000 vehicles.
Mixed in the first half
In the first six months of 2011, the first three months of January, March and June showed year-on-year growth, and the second quarter, fourth and fifth quarters decreased year-on-year. The total performance in the first half of the year was lower than the original expectations of the China Road Society Bus Subcommittee.
Specifically, the passenger car sales curve in June suddenly rose. The number of bus companies entering the statistics totaled 21,376 vehicles, an increase of 12.43% year-on-year, temporarily curbing the downward trend since April and May. Driven by the strong data in June, from January to June, 103,912 buses were sold, a year-on-year increase, which rose to 3.31%, which was 2.12% higher than the previous five months.
Despite this, the passenger car market in the first half of the year still has some bright spots. The first is that the performance of large and medium-sized passenger cars is relatively prominent. In the first six months of the year, the cumulative sales price of large and medium-sized passenger cars across the industry was 667,82, a year-on-year increase of 6%, which was much higher than the industry's average increase of 3.31%. In the first half of 2011, the mainstream bus companies shielded light buses from the assessment of sales performance, which effectively promoted the growth of sales of large and medium-sized passenger vehicles and ensured a steady increase in operating performance.
In the first six months of this year, there were 29 buses exported by 50 bus companies, and 12,430 buses were exported, up 32.70% year-on-year, nearly 10 times the industry average. Excluding export factors, the domestic market's year-on-year increase was only 0.3%. It can be seen that although the passenger car exports have encountered an international disorder, the domestic passenger car market situation has become more severe. Judging from the performance of bus companies, there are a total of eight companies that export more than 100 million yuan.
Again, the bus started to force. In June, the number of bus passenger cars sold was 7,318, which accounted for 34.23% of the total passenger car sales. This was an increase of 8.3% from 25.93% of the total sales volume of bus passengers in the first five months, an increase of 40.70% over the same period of last year, and it has supported bus sales in June. The main factor for a substantial increase. Buses are the hope for the passenger car market to go out of its slump, but the fact that bus operators are not of high quality is also a fact. How to seek a balance between sales and performance is a touchstone to test the marketing experience and management level of bus companies.
Happy watching the second half
Zou Huxiao stated that by the end of 2010, the Bus Branch of the China Highway Society had judged that the sales growth of passenger cars in 2011 was within 5%, compared with only 3.31% in the first half of 2011. According to the law of market development, the demand for the bus market in the second half of the year will be higher than the first half. Based on the optimism of the demand for public transport and the growth of passenger car exports, we still maintain the growth rate of 5% or less in the second half of the year.
However, in the second half of the year, the bus market still needs to overcome difficulties from three aspects.
First, the development of the industry has encountered monetary tightening. In the past two years, the bank deposit reserve ratio has been raised for 12 consecutive times, especially in 2011, almost once a month. As of now, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions has reached a record high of 21.5%. The tightening of monetary policy, the bus industry and passenger car users are all affected by the “money shortageâ€, and there is no financial guarantee for the development of enterprises, and the purchase of cars by users is also constrained by the shortage of funds, which is the main reason for the sluggish passenger car industry and passenger car market.
Second, domestic demand suffered a "hot spot" vacuum. Different from the “Olympicsâ€, “Expo†and “Asian Games†hotspots in previous years, in addition to the Shenzhen Universiade, which can count as a small hot spot, there has been a lack of large, radiating hotspot events. The sluggish demand is the source of the downturn in the domestic passenger car market in the first half of the year.
Third, the international situation has not affected the passenger car exports. The economic recovery in the United States was lower than expected, and the debt crisis in Europe was in turmoil. The majority of the five BRICS countries faced inflationary pressures, and the major markets for Chinese bus exports in the Middle East and Africa continued to fluctuate. The instability of the international situation makes it difficult for the passenger car exports to truly emerge from the shadow of the financial crisis in a short period of time, and the export benefits tend to decline.
"Twelve Five" has new needs
According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†of the Ministry of Transport, the passenger car market space during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period is divided into four parts. First, large and medium-sized non-bus passenger vehicles sold a total of 360,000 vehicles during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period. The “12th Five-Year Plan†will focus on structural adjustment, with little increase in domestic and export volumes. Second, rural passenger vehicles, That is, light non-bus cars, the domestic and foreign markets will reach the scale of 500,000 during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period. Third, the number of urban buses and buses, including 480,000 domestic and 40,000 exports, will reach the scale of 520,000. It is the scale of the emerging bus market that will form 50,000 vehicles.
Despite the large economic situation, the growth of the passenger car market in 2011 was slow, but Zou Huxiao stated that it is expected that the total demand of the passenger car market during the “12th Five-Year Plan†will increase by 67.25% over the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, with an annual average of approximately 28.6. 10,000 cars. Overall, there are three major positive factors.
First, the development of rural passenger vehicles is relatively large. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, about 240,000 rural passenger cars will need to be renewed. In addition to the annual (including export) demand, the total demand for rural passenger cars will be around 500,000, and the average annual demand will reach 100,000 vehicles. At present, the annual sales of rural passenger vehicles do not exceed 70,000 vehicles, which has significant room for growth.
Second, the urban bus market will continue to grow at a high rate. According to the "Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan for Urban Public Transport" and the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the total number of public buses and buses in China will reach 600,000, which is about 200,000 more than that in 2010. At the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the number of public buses and buses is about 400,000. The State stipulates that the number of years of retirement for buses and buses should be 10 years, but the actual average number of years for retirement should be about 8 years. According to relevant statistics, 70% of the existing bus fleet will need to be renewed during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, with a total of approximately 280,000 vehicles. The new demand mentioned in the above plan is 200,000 units, plus 280,000 new demand updates. The total demand for public bus during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is 480,000 units, and the average annual demand will reach 96,000 units. The annual sales of passenger cars are only around 60,000 vehicles, and the growth space is very optimistic.
Third, the development of the emerging passenger car market is worth looking forward to, such as the school bus market. The demand for school buses is exact, the painful lessons of school bus accidents and the traffic congestion around the school have put forward urgent requirements for establishing a normal student travel order. Establishing a perfect school bus operating system is the best choice for solving these two major contradictions. In 2010, Beijing has clearly stated that “the development of primary and secondary school vehicle service systems will gradually ease the traffic congestion around primary and secondary schools in the morning and evening rush hourâ€. Relevant information shows that there are 440,000 school buses in the United States, which transport 25 million elementary and middle school students every day, accounting for 54% of the total number of primary and secondary school students. The total population of China is much higher than that of the United States. With the United States as a reference, the total demand for school buses in the future will increase the market space of passenger cars by at least double. The past five years will be the preliminary stage for the development of these emerging bus markets. The total demand for this market is conservatively estimated to be about 50,000 vehicles.
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