Just a week after the domestic refined oil price adjustment on August 10th, the signal that the oil price was raised twice was frequent again. With institutional monitoring, the average price change of crude oil in the three places has reached 1.7% recently. According to the current trend of international oil prices, the rate of change of oil prices at the end of the month will break the 4% red line, and there will be no suspense when prices are adjusted again in early September. The industry believes that a further increase of 350 yuan per ton means that the majority of vehicle owners will add 93 # gasoline at that time and may need to pay a further 0.27 yuan per liter.
The rise is difficult to prevent the three crude oil rate of change to expand to +1.70%
On August 10th, refined oil ushered in the “three consecutive falls†for the first time, Xi'an 93 gasoline rose from 6.87 yuan per liter to 7.18 yuan; 90# gasoline rose from 6.48 yuan per liter to 6.77 yuan; 97# gasoline from per liter 7.26 yuan rose to 7.59 yuan. With the increase in the price of refined oil products, the weighted average rate of change in crude oil in the three places has entered a new round of calculation cycles. According to information agency monitoring data, as of August 14th, the average price of crude oil in Brent, Dubai and Xinta was 111.948 US$/barrel, which was much higher than the benchmark price of 104.51 US$/barrel, and the change rate of crude oil in the three places was expanded to +1.70. %, up 0.54% from the previous day.
The reporter learned that at the beginning of the month, the gasoline and diesel prices in the northwestern market seldom fluctuate. On the second working day after the oil price increase, Xi’an’s main market was once again adjusting its prices, with a smaller margin. Gasoline and diesel fuel prices rose by around RMB 50/ton, and PetroChina’s gasoline and diesel prices were quoted. Rising, 93 # gasoline mainstream shipping prices in 9122 yuan / ton, 0 # diesel 7995 yuan / ton.
In the first half of September, diesel plus oil may be more than RMB 0.3/liter as a “barometer†for the price adjustment of refined oil products. The fluctuation of international oil prices has caused widespread concern among market participants. "If the average price of crude oil in the three places maintains the current price, the rate of change of crude oil in the three places will still rise in the later period, and the red line will be broken once again on August 23th. The new round of upward adjustment is expected to increase, and as such, 9 On the 7th of the month, when the 22 working days are met, the rate of change in the three places will increase to 6.5% to 7%, and the price adjustment window will be opened again." There are institutional analysts analyzing it. For the oil price increase, an industry insider who did not want to be named predicted that “the increase will be 350 yuan/ton, which means that 93# gasoline will increase by 0.27 yuan/liter and 0# diesel will increase by 0.30 yuan/liter. Yes, after the next 7 working days, the rate of change in the three cities will be positive and the price adjustment window should be around September 10.
Citizens are worried about increasing transportation costs. People's livelihood products can be used to raise prices. High oil prices The most direct way for residents to live in daily life is for private car owners to contribute less fuel, which raises the public’s greater concern that the related industry chain has increased transportation costs. Caused by the rising prices of daily necessities. “Once the oil price increase in September has become true, it is tantamount to returning to the previous era of high oil prices. The three or four quarters caused by this will not be able to rise with the price increase. The transportation costs of daily necessities, such as vegetable prices, egg prices, and fruit prices, will not be reduced. With the increase, the retail price will surely rise,†said citizen Mr. Guo. Pushing up refined oil prices will inevitably affect the terminal infrastructure industry and increase the spending of oil companies and consumers. In an interview with the media, Zhuo Chuang analysts said that refined oil prices accounted for about 0.2% of CPI, but from the aspect of cost transmission, there are certain fuel consumption ratios in food, tobacco, alcohol, and clothing. Taken together, the refined oil price is raised by RMB 400/ton, and the pulling effect of CPI is much higher than 0.011 percentage points.
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