The New Year car industry outlook "This is the best time and the worst time..." After a long-lost 2004 year, the Chinese auto industry hopes that the worst time will come and the best time will come. . There is a saying: "Go ahead, it is a day ahead!" It is worth for manufacturers and distributors to be grateful that the auto market in 2005 will be more standardized and well-organized. It will neither be “crazy†nor depressing as it was last year... Here, we bravely make four major predictions for this year’s auto market. We hope to show the prototype of the auto market in 2005 before everyone. The four veterans of Shanghai's gas sales company also took this opportunity to express their views and hopes for the 2005 auto market. Demand continues to grow at a slower rate than the many variables that existed in China's auto market last year, allowing those who have experienced ups and downs in 2004 to be more cautious about forecasting the auto market this year. After careful analysis, many experts expressed cautious optimism about the 2005 market, that is, market demand will continue to grow, but the growth rate will be about 15% lower than that in 2004. According to Zhang Boshun, secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers Market Trade Committee, the law of demand in the auto market is the result of the intrinsic role of market operations. There is data showing that when the "R value" - the ratio of vehicle price to GDP per capita - reaches 2 or 3, that is, when the vehicle price is equivalent to 2 to 3 times the GDP per capita, it is the critical point for a car to enter the family. At present, the R values ​​in economically developed regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong are already close to 4 or 5, indicating that these regions are getting closer and closer to the critical point and there is a huge market prospect. According to the theory of American economists, the auto market in a country must continue to grow at a rate of 1-1.5 times the country's GDP. At present, economic and academic circles generally predict that the country's GDP growth will reach about 8% this year. Zhang Boshun thus put forward, assuming that with such data, it is normal for the car market to grow by 12%-15% in 2005. For Zhang Boshun's analysis, many experts also share the same feeling. Dong Jianhua, an analyst at the Department of Industrial Economics of the National Bureau of Statistics's Department of Economic Statistics, and Dong Jianhua, an analyst at Southwest Securities, have also proposed a 15% increase rate in anticipation of this year’s growth. And those auto makers that have experienced significant growth in production and sales last year, and who have enjoyed good returns, are generally optimistic about this year's auto market. For example, the best-selling enterprise in the automotive industry, Guangzhou Honda, has grown its sales by more than 70% in 2004. Beijing Hyundai, Changan Ford and Changan Group are very confident in this year's automobile market. Their forecast is to increase by 20% or even more. Liu Shijin, head of the Industrial Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, predicts that the auto market may see a significant recovery in April and May of this year. Past experience also shows that if the auto market situation is not good this year, there will be a correction in the following year. Car prices continue to fall, not yet facing a crash Most car dealers and experts generally believe that the overall situation this year's car prices will continue to decline. This is because, first, many manufacturers have expanded their production capacity in the first half of this year or the first half of this year. After the expansion of production, on the one hand, the contradiction of overcapacity is made more prominent, and manufacturers are forced to lower their prices. At the same time, the scale expansion leads to a reduction in the cost of bicycles, which leaves room for manufacturers to increase their market share. Second, the drop in tariffs in 2005 caused the price of imported cars to drop, which may weigh on domestic cars and lower the prices of domestic cars. Therefore, the price cut will remain the main theme of the auto market this year. But Liu Shijin, head of the Industrial Economics Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that the car price will not collapse completely. Although the general trend this year is that the price of the car is going down, but for different market segments, the changes in car prices will show different characteristics. Economy car prices will be fine-tuned. The lowest price of economic vehicles has now exceeded 30,000 yuan, and this price is the lowest in the world, basically reaching the bottom line of maintaining costs. In this case, it is not realistic to expect a substantial price reduction for an economy vehicle. The mid-range car prices will be closer to 100,000 yuan. This year, there will be several mid-range car teams such as the Ford Focus and Peugeot 206. The competition in this area will be even more intense. A small number of high-volume models may have significant price cuts to "clean up the portal." There is also a large price reduction in high-end cars. This year, more than 200,000 yuan will be added to the Crown, Cadillac, Mercedes-Benz C-class, E-class and other models, the addition of new models will make the relatively narrow competition in the high-end car market more severe, coupled with the import car price pressure, This year, the possibility of a substantial price cut for high-end cars is very high. The import price is not yet clear. With the reduction of tariffs this year, the price of imported cars should drop again. However, due to the implementation of some new policies, the factors that affect the prices of imported vehicles also exist. Therefore, how it changes is not yet clear. Intense competition in new cars will become a hot spot. 2004 was the year when the new car was launched in China's auto industry, especially passenger vehicles. In 2005, auto manufacturers will not only be price but will also be able to compete on new models. After all, walking in a car market full of killings, the two legs are still relatively stable. In the mid- to high-end cars, the Audi A6, which dominates the domestic luxury car market, will have a new model A6 introduced this year; Beijing Benz E-class and C-class double-edged arrows will set off a Benz whirlwind in the Chinese car scene; , New Crown against Audi A6, Mercedes-Benz E-class, MarkX will face Nissan Teana. The derivative version of Mazda 6 will also start production this year. The Buick Regal replacement Lacrosse will be launched in the United States this year. The introduction of China is only a matter of time; Hyundai Sonata NF completely subverts the design concept of the old Sonata EF and will become a crucial bargaining chip in Beijing’s continued expansion. The domestic production of Mitsubishi Gelan and Chrysler 300C will make the middle-and-high-end auto market pattern further fissile; and the hope of FAW-Volkswagen Bora to revitalize the wind is also placed on the Polaris A5 produced on the PQ35 platform. With the continuous decline in vehicle prices and the increase in national income, compact cars of around RMB 100,000 have become the main choice for buyers of domestic cars. Whether Peugeot 206 can continue to write the legend of Europa in China in 2005 is undoubtedly the biggest attraction in the compact sedan market; Mazda 2 will start a new round of killing with Honda Fit. In addition, the domestic imported car market in 2005 has too many reasons to become a hot spot. Although it is very difficult for us to sell our imported cars that have entered the Chinese market this year, the following new cars will surely be the main players we are concerned about: Volkswagen Bugatti, VOLVOS40-T5, Jaguar XJ8-3.0, President Masala, Land Rover Finder 3 Peugeot 807, Renault New Megane, LEXUS GS300, Aston Martin DB7, Porsche New 911 Convertible. More favorable policies to promote the development of the auto market Last year, the introduction of many new policies activated the original sluggish auto market; this year, more favorable new policies will be issued to the Chinese auto market will be marked with a "strengthening agent." First of all, individuals are expected to directly use second-hand car transactions, but also to buy used cars can also enjoy after-sales service. The “Administrative Measures for the Circulation of Used Vehicles†currently being formulated is expected to be introduced in the near future. One of the most concerns is that the new approach requires that used car dealerships must provide after-sales services. Second, the policy changes in the imported car market are relatively large. After the cancellation of the license, the new policy of controlling the imported car market instead of the quota system will be the "registration system." According to reports, after the implementation of the "registration system," imported car dealers must apply to the customs department and register the number of brands and vehicles they need to import, and the relevant agencies will approve the import or not. “The car dealer’s financial status and business scale will all be taken into consideration. The implementation of this registration system is also to limit the import of imported vehicles.†A senior industry analyst analyzed, “This system can play the same as the license. The role is to restrict the influx of imported cars into the market, thus protecting the domestic cars.†The implementation of the system of land sales and taxation that began this year will greatly increase the cost and risk of imported car dealers and raise the threshold for imported cars, but it will make the imported car market. More standardized. This system means that the country will no longer set up bonded warehouses for imported vehicles, cancel the bonded taxation of imported vehicles, and implement the system of taxation of imported vehicles. In addition, the “fuel tax†policy that was desiring at the end of last year has still not been formally launched. It is believed that owners of private cars in 2005 will be able to enjoy the benefits brought by this new policy; and the implementation of the “New Law†rules in Beijing has brought about A lot of benefits, it seems that the implementation of the details of the implementation of the Shanghai area is also a matter of time sooner or later, I hope to give motorists to surprise! (Wen / Huang Jingjie Zheng Haiyang Zhang Xiaoming)
The Four Prophecies for China's Auto Industry in 2005 (Figure)
The New Year car industry outlook "This is the best time and the worst time..." After a long-lost 2004 year, the Chinese auto industry hopes that the worst time will come and the best time will come. . There is a saying: "Go ahead, it is a day ahead!" It is worth for manufacturers and distributors to be grateful that the auto market in 2005 will be more standardized and well-organized. It will neither be “crazy†nor depressing as it was last year... Here, we bravely make four major predictions for this year’s auto market. We hope to show the prototype of the auto market in 2005 before everyone. The four veterans of Shanghai's gas sales company also took this opportunity to express their views and hopes for the 2005 auto market. Demand continues to grow at a slower rate than the many variables that existed in China's auto market last year, allowing those who have experienced ups and downs in 2004 to be more cautious about forecasting the auto market this year. After careful analysis, many experts expressed cautious optimism about the 2005 market, that is, market demand will continue to grow, but the growth rate will be about 15% lower than that in 2004. According to Zhang Boshun, secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers Market Trade Committee, the law of demand in the auto market is the result of the intrinsic role of market operations. There is data showing that when the "R value" - the ratio of vehicle price to GDP per capita - reaches 2 or 3, that is, when the vehicle price is equivalent to 2 to 3 times the GDP per capita, it is the critical point for a car to enter the family. At present, the R values ​​in economically developed regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong are already close to 4 or 5, indicating that these regions are getting closer and closer to the critical point and there is a huge market prospect. According to the theory of American economists, the auto market in a country must continue to grow at a rate of 1-1.5 times the country's GDP. At present, economic and academic circles generally predict that the country's GDP growth will reach about 8% this year. Zhang Boshun thus put forward, assuming that with such data, it is normal for the car market to grow by 12%-15% in 2005. For Zhang Boshun's analysis, many experts also share the same feeling. Dong Jianhua, an analyst at the Department of Industrial Economics of the National Bureau of Statistics's Department of Economic Statistics, and Dong Jianhua, an analyst at Southwest Securities, have also proposed a 15% increase rate in anticipation of this year’s growth. And those auto makers that have experienced significant growth in production and sales last year, and who have enjoyed good returns, are generally optimistic about this year's auto market. For example, the best-selling enterprise in the automotive industry, Guangzhou Honda, has grown its sales by more than 70% in 2004. Beijing Hyundai, Changan Ford and Changan Group are very confident in this year's automobile market. Their forecast is to increase by 20% or even more. Liu Shijin, head of the Industrial Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, predicts that the auto market may see a significant recovery in April and May of this year. Past experience also shows that if the auto market situation is not good this year, there will be a correction in the following year. Car prices continue to fall, not yet facing a crash Most car dealers and experts generally believe that the overall situation this year's car prices will continue to decline. This is because, first, many manufacturers have expanded their production capacity in the first half of this year or the first half of this year. After the expansion of production, on the one hand, the contradiction of overcapacity is made more prominent, and manufacturers are forced to lower their prices. At the same time, the scale expansion leads to a reduction in the cost of bicycles, which leaves room for manufacturers to increase their market share. Second, the drop in tariffs in 2005 caused the price of imported cars to drop, which may weigh on domestic cars and lower the prices of domestic cars. Therefore, the price cut will remain the main theme of the auto market this year. But Liu Shijin, head of the Industrial Economics Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that the car price will not collapse completely. Although the general trend this year is that the price of the car is going down, but for different market segments, the changes in car prices will show different characteristics. Economy car prices will be fine-tuned. The lowest price of economic vehicles has now exceeded 30,000 yuan, and this price is the lowest in the world, basically reaching the bottom line of maintaining costs. In this case, it is not realistic to expect a substantial price reduction for an economy vehicle. The mid-range car prices will be closer to 100,000 yuan. This year, there will be several mid-range car teams such as the Ford Focus and Peugeot 206. The competition in this area will be even more intense. A small number of high-volume models may have significant price cuts to "clean up the portal." There is also a large price reduction in high-end cars. This year, more than 200,000 yuan will be added to the Crown, Cadillac, Mercedes-Benz C-class, E-class and other models, the addition of new models will make the relatively narrow competition in the high-end car market more severe, coupled with the import car price pressure, This year, the possibility of a substantial price cut for high-end cars is very high. The import price is not yet clear. With the reduction of tariffs this year, the price of imported cars should drop again. However, due to the implementation of some new policies, the factors that affect the prices of imported vehicles also exist. Therefore, how it changes is not yet clear. Intense competition in new cars will become a hot spot. 2004 was the year when the new car was launched in China's auto industry, especially passenger vehicles. In 2005, auto manufacturers will not only be price but will also be able to compete on new models. After all, walking in a car market full of killings, the two legs are still relatively stable. In the mid- to high-end cars, the Audi A6, which dominates the domestic luxury car market, will have a new model A6 introduced this year; Beijing Benz E-class and C-class double-edged arrows will set off a Benz whirlwind in the Chinese car scene; , New Crown against Audi A6, Mercedes-Benz E-class, MarkX will face Nissan Teana. The derivative version of Mazda 6 will also start production this year. The Buick Regal replacement Lacrosse will be launched in the United States this year. The introduction of China is only a matter of time; Hyundai Sonata NF completely subverts the design concept of the old Sonata EF and will become a crucial bargaining chip in Beijing’s continued expansion. The domestic production of Mitsubishi Gelan and Chrysler 300C will make the middle-and-high-end auto market pattern further fissile; and the hope of FAW-Volkswagen Bora to revitalize the wind is also placed on the Polaris A5 produced on the PQ35 platform. With the continuous decline in vehicle prices and the increase in national income, compact cars of around RMB 100,000 have become the main choice for buyers of domestic cars. Whether Peugeot 206 can continue to write the legend of Europa in China in 2005 is undoubtedly the biggest attraction in the compact sedan market; Mazda 2 will start a new round of killing with Honda Fit. In addition, the domestic imported car market in 2005 has too many reasons to become a hot spot. Although it is very difficult for us to sell our imported cars that have entered the Chinese market this year, the following new cars will surely be the main players we are concerned about: Volkswagen Bugatti, VOLVOS40-T5, Jaguar XJ8-3.0, President Masala, Land Rover Finder 3 Peugeot 807, Renault New Megane, LEXUS GS300, Aston Martin DB7, Porsche New 911 Convertible. More favorable policies to promote the development of the auto market Last year, the introduction of many new policies activated the original sluggish auto market; this year, more favorable new policies will be issued to the Chinese auto market will be marked with a "strengthening agent." First of all, individuals are expected to directly use second-hand car transactions, but also to buy used cars can also enjoy after-sales service. The “Administrative Measures for the Circulation of Used Vehicles†currently being formulated is expected to be introduced in the near future. One of the most concerns is that the new approach requires that used car dealerships must provide after-sales services. Second, the policy changes in the imported car market are relatively large. After the cancellation of the license, the new policy of controlling the imported car market instead of the quota system will be the "registration system." According to reports, after the implementation of the "registration system," imported car dealers must apply to the customs department and register the number of brands and vehicles they need to import, and the relevant agencies will approve the import or not. “The car dealer’s financial status and business scale will all be taken into consideration. The implementation of this registration system is also to limit the import of imported vehicles.†A senior industry analyst analyzed, “This system can play the same as the license. The role is to restrict the influx of imported cars into the market, thus protecting the domestic cars.†The implementation of the system of land sales and taxation that began this year will greatly increase the cost and risk of imported car dealers and raise the threshold for imported cars, but it will make the imported car market. More standardized. This system means that the country will no longer set up bonded warehouses for imported vehicles, cancel the bonded taxation of imported vehicles, and implement the system of taxation of imported vehicles. In addition, the “fuel tax†policy that was desiring at the end of last year has still not been formally launched. It is believed that owners of private cars in 2005 will be able to enjoy the benefits brought by this new policy; and the implementation of the “New Law†rules in Beijing has brought about A lot of benefits, it seems that the implementation of the details of the implementation of the Shanghai area is also a matter of time sooner or later, I hope to give motorists to surprise! (Wen / Huang Jingjie Zheng Haiyang Zhang Xiaoming)