Increase in the number of instrumentation industry operation is better than expected

He pointed out that with the advancement of science and technology and structural adjustment, the main income of the instrument and instrument industry will exceed 8.5%, which is likely to hit a record high.

Analysis Paper: Production and sales growth slowed down than expected YoY

From December 2010 to June 2011, the year-on-year growth of the production and sales of the instrumentation industry has gradually declined from the previous year's high point. “The speed of return is stable and moderate, and it can be said that it was close to the previous expectation. However, the month-on-month ratio was more volatile, especially in April, when the sales value turned negative, it was -0.60%, which was the first time in recent years.”

"This needs to arouse our vigilance: This year's market demand is not as strong as last year." Yan Jiacheng reminded. Thanks to the company's completion of "double-half," the industry's sales in May rose from the previous quarter, and double-digit growth (19.10%) resumed in June.

He told reporters that in the first half of the instrument and meter industry, the key production and sales of key enterprises were in good condition, and the overall operation of the industry was better than expected. “But it is worth noting that the environmental monitoring equipment that sustained rapid growth in previous years has seen year-on-year growth in production and sales. The sudden drop to the low end of one digit is contrary to the country’s emphasis on environmental protection policies.”

There are two reasons for this analysis: First, the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" environmental protection project is close to the end, while the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" new project has not yet started or the investment is not in place; secondly, the import of such products has increased significantly.

When it comes to profits, Jia Jiacheng pointed out that the current year-on-year growth in profits of the instrumentation industry has dropped significantly from the high point of last year, and the decline is larger than the production and sales. In the past two years, the increase in various expenses far below the growth in production and sales has ended, and the financial expenses, inventory, accounts receivable, and management expenses have all increased. The number of loss-making enterprises and the amount of losses have increased by 5.5% and 24.4% respectively. On the whole, most companies have normal economic conditions and profits are still rising, but the increase is lower than the previous year.

“The profit margin has shown a negative growth in the month of April, reaching -11.3%, but it has turned upwards in May and June,” he told reporters. Most companies can still maintain a certain degree of profit growth in the first half of the year, especially for key enterprises. There was no apparent deterioration of the economy and finances. As of the end of June, the industry’s main revenue profit margin has risen to more than 8%, and has continued to maintain its leading position in the manufacturing industry.

Both import and export growth fell

The year-on-year growth of imports and exports doubled. On the import side, the year-on-year growth in imports from the industry has dropped from 30.5% at the high point of the beginning of the year to 10.9%, which is not determinable. The monthly import volume has fluctuate around 3.1 billion U.S. dollars, of which, the increase in imports is larger for laboratory analytical instruments and medical services. Instruments and testing machines were 45.1%, 44.2% and 71.9%, respectively.

The year-on-year increase in exports fell from 34% in November last year to 15.4%. Monthly export volume fluctuate within a narrow range between US$1.5 billion and US$1.6 billion. The year-on-year increase in export delivery value has been reduced from 25.7% in November 2010 to 13.3%. The proportion of sales in the entire industry has dropped from a high of around 30% to 18.7%.

“Although due to the weakening international market, the export growth rate has decreased, but the industry’s export structure has been optimized.” For example, Jia Jiacheng said, for example, decentralized control equipment with higher technological content increased by 97.5% year-on-year, and will exceed US$100 million for the first time this year. As a commodity meter with competitive advantage in China, it has a relatively large proportion in the international market. In the past, the long-term large-scale export of magnetoelectricity has been replaced by electronic ones, and the average unit price has been doubled. “This year's export value is expected to exceed 4 One hundred million U.S. dollars".

Breakthroughs have been made in key projects of technological progress

At the same time, the scientific and technological progress of the industry continues to make progress. Jia Jiacheng gave reporters a few examples.

On March 29th this year, the DCS of the company at the company's Guangdong Taishan Power Plant passed a 168-hour evaluation at the 1,000 MW No. 6 unit and was officially put into operation, realizing the first application of a domestically-made control system in a million-kilowatt ultra-supercritical unit. . Immediately afterwards, on May 14, DCS of Guodian Zhishen invested 168 hours of full-load test operation successfully at the 1,000 MW ultra-supercritical unit in Jiangsu Jianbi Power Plant successfully.

At the same time, DCS of Zhejiang Zhonghua succeeded in the one-time commissioning of the nine large kilowatt-ton large-scale oil refinery expansion and expansion projects of Sinopec Changling Branch, and achieved a historic breakthrough in the domestically produced control system in the 10-million-ton large-scale oil refining project. Sinopec North Sea 10-million-ton oil refining and chemical integration off-site reconstruction project and Qinghai 50-megawatt tower solar thermal power demonstration project have been signed and implemented.

In addition, the industrialization of urban heating control systems and heat meters is also rapidly progressing and will soon become a new industry with advanced technology and a scale of several billion yuan, contributing to energy conservation and consumption reduction.

Listing Accelerated Reorganization Takes Effect

According to reports, the instrumentation industry listed 17 companies last year, accounting for 29.8% of the total number of listings in the previous 20 years. This year, 6 companies including Tianrui, Zhonghaida, Congguang, Libang, Samsung, and Linyang went public.

While the speed of going public has accelerated, mergers and acquisitions in the industry have also been effective. In May of this year, Beijing Hollysys acquired a 100% stake in Singapore Concord, taking a solid step forward in its internationalization strategy. Following the merger of Beijing Micro-Link Corporation into the railway signal system, Beijing Consen Company also held the Wuzhong Regulating Valve Plant, resulting in the development of both businesses and achieving a “win-win”.

Yan Jiacheng also revealed that there are still dozens of companies in the industry actively preparing for listing, and this will undoubtedly help optimize the industrial structure.

Forecast article: Annual production and sales growth will be higher than expected

For the second half of the year, Yan Jiacheng made several predictions.

Affected by the previous year's base number and seasonal factors, the production and sales volume in the second half of the year will fluctuate upwards, and will gradually decline year-on-year.

Yan Jiacheng explained that in the first half of the year, the company’s stocks rose year-on-year, indicating that the strong growth of recovery growth in the same period last year has come to an end, but the absolute value of inventories has not increased significantly. This also indicates that the industry is not overheated and that the demand for production and sales is gradually returning to normal. It will fluctuate as much as some industries.

"After being promoted by the company's two-and-a-half year, production and sales in June will hit a record high this year. It will fall in July and August. It will rebound slightly again in September and October, and will no longer reproduce the last year's sharp 'tail warts' at the end of the year. He believes that the year-on-year increase is expected to exceed the 15% expected at the beginning of the year, reaching about 20%, which is about 10 percentage points lower than the growth rate of the previous year, and is in a normal and stable growth area.

Based on the first half of the year-on-year growth in production and sales, which has dropped by 3 percentage points, but the profit growth has dropped by 18 percentage points year-on-year. Yan Jiacheng believes that the trend of a year-on-year decline in profit growth over the year-on-year decline in production and sales will continue, but the decline will narrow gradually, which means that The year-on-year increase in profits and production and sales is gradually approaching, and will become the norm. "The year-on-year increase in profits is expected to be around 20%."

The extraordinary growth of profits in the previous two years was mainly due to the scale effect of recovery growth, “but this year is different”. He emphasized that in the economic environment in which costs have risen and demand growth has slowed down, most companies can still maintain a certain margin of profit growth. At the same time, as a result of relying more on scientific and technological progress and structural adjustment, the profit rate of the industry's main revenue will exceed 8.5%, which may hit a record high, close to 9%, and maintain its leading position in the manufacturing industry.

Annual import and export deficit will exceed 16 billion U.S. dollars

Affected by the economic situation at home and abroad, the growth of imports and exports has slowed down. It is expected that the monthly import and export volume in the second half of the year will fluctuate in the one-digit region, which is an increase of 10% to 15% year-on-year.

Ju Jiacheng judged that with the launch of the 12th Five-Year Plan, especially the implementation of special projects such as environmental protection, food safety, and the revitalization of nuclear power, it is expected that the import of high-end equipment and testing and control equipment will further increase at the end of the year or early next year. The annual import and export deficit will exceed 16 billion U.S. dollars.

In addition, in the first half of the year, the increase in the production and sales of “three foreign-funded” enterprises is lower than that of domestic companies will continue in the second half of the year. Since the "three-funded" enterprises' exports account for about 40% of the total production and sales, the downturn in the international market will increase the gap between their growth and that of domestic companies. At the same time, due to the declining import growth, the market share of domestic companies is expected to increase by 3%.

At present, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” of various industries is gradually determined, and planning, innovative projects, and special projects related to the instrumentation industry will also be gradually launched. "The 12th Five-Year Plan has attracted more attention and support from high-tech industries such as instrumentation and metering than the 'Eleventh Five-Year Plan,' which will have a major impact on the industry's scientific and technological progress and structural adjustment." Yu Jiacheng said that relevant companies and units are It has begun to actively cooperate with the work, but since the earliest project start-up is expected in the fourth quarter, its substantive role in the development of the industry will start next year.