Although the detailed automobile production and sales data in 2014 has not yet been released, at present, the production and sales of automobiles in the first 11 months of last year have exceeded 21 million, and China will once again become the world's largest new car market without any suspense. At the same time, traffic congestion and air pollution have become increasingly serious as car sales have increased year after year.
The changes in the automobile market are always traceable, but it is not so easy to solve the automobile social diseases such as congestion and pollution. In order to alleviate these contradictions and manage the use of vehicles, since last year, a series of strict yellow label vehicle elimination policies, new energy vehicle promotion plans and restrictions on purchase restrictions have been introduced. But overall, the implementation of these compulsory measures is not satisfactory, which means that the management of motor vehicles in 2015 will face more severe challenges.
â– Restricted purchases of new members Compared to the 2012 Guangzhou purchase restriction from the release to the effective three-hour buffer period, Shenzhen's actions are obviously faster. At 17:40 on December 29, the Shenzhen Municipal Government held a press conference and officially issued the "Notice of Shenzhen Municipal People's Government on the Implementation of Incremental Regulation and Management of Small Cars" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"). Chen Huigang, deputy director of the Shenzhen Municipal Transportation Commission, announced that the retail car purchase plan for Shenzhen Automobile will be officially implemented at 18:00 on December 29.
Shenzhen, as a special zone, has been placed high hopes, and the public expects that Shenzhen can find an effective path on the issue of motor vehicle management. As early as July 2013, the Shenzhen Municipal Transportation Commission said that “there is no purchase restriction plan†and stressed that Shenzhen will guide the rational use of vehicles mainly through the use of facilities, economic leverage, travel management and propaganda.
Specifically, Shenzhen City proposed four measures: First, rationally diversify the urban suburb layout, reduce the population and traffic density of the central area; Second, vigorously develop a rapid public transportation system, vigorously advocate green travel; third, encourage the improvement of vehicle utilization rate. “Shun the windmill†to encourage small-displacement small-size cars; Fourth, adjust the vehicle usage frequency by controlling the cost of the vehicle. Shenzhen's “limited use of unlimited purchase†motor vehicle management ideas have aroused strong repercussions in the industry and have been regarded as experience by many cities.
However, in the context of the rapid growth of the automobile market, these governance measures have had little effect. In the end, Shenzhen still followed the footsteps of Beishangguang and decided to issue a purchase restriction order. The "Notice" clarifies that the amount of incremental indicators for small cars in Shenzhen is tentatively set at 100,000 per year. It is timely adjusted according to the road carrying capacity and atmospheric environmental protection needs. Shenzhen has become Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Guiyang and The seventh city to be purchased after Tianjin. Is it just a matter of morning and evening as long as the auto market continues to grow as long as the auto market continues to grow? According to the list of suspected purchases announced by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers in the past, in Shijiazhuang, Chongqing, Qingdao, Wuhan, Chengdu and other cities, who will be recruited next year?
â– Yellow label vehicle elimination failed to meet expectations According to estimates, motor vehicle exhaust emissions accounted for 41% of Shenzhen PM2.5 local emission sources, Beijing and Shanghai are slightly lower, respectively 31.1% and 25.8%. It can be seen that controlling the growth rate of motor vehicles is an important means of controlling air pollution. In the seven cities that have implemented the purchase restriction, the vehicle ownership will remain within a reasonable range within the time limit, and the new vehicle increment will be effectively controlled. However, the yellow label car is another major source of air pollution, and its governance work has not been carried out smoothly.
In 2014, the State Council issued a total of 6 million vehicles for the elimination of yellow-label vehicles and old vehicles. Among them, 7 provinces and cities in key areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta eliminated 2.43 million yellow-label vehicles and old vehicles, accounting for elimination tasks. 40.5%. According to the information recently reported by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, as of October 2014, there are still 60% of the total tasks in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Henan, Hubei, Guangxi, and Tibet. This means that it will be more difficult to implement the Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan.
It can be seen from the 2015 yellow label vehicle elimination policy announced by various provinces and cities that this year's governance intensity and scope have increased significantly. This year's yellow label vehicle management is another difficult battle. According to the information already published, in 2015, almost all large and medium-sized cities have designated a strict yellow-label car ban area. Beijing will completely ban foreign-owned yellow-label vehicles entering the administrative area this year, and Shanghai, Tianjin, Hefei and other places are expanding the ban. Based on the scope of the line, the scrap subsidy has been increased. At the same time, auto companies will also face the requirement to upgrade as early as possible on the emission technology route. Li Kunsheng, director of the Motor Vehicle Emissions Management Office of the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau, said that with the tightening of emission regulations, the environmental protection department will order the recall of some new vehicles with excessive exhaust gas.
â– New energy vehicle promotion bottlenecks As new energy-saving vehicles, energy-saving emission reduction and low-carbon environmental protection vehicles have been explicitly included in the promotion plan. According to the plan, from 2014 to 2015, China will complete the promotion target of 330,000 new energy vehicles declared by 39 demonstration and promotion cities (groups) in China, but according to the data of the first 11 months of 2014, China's new energy vehicles will sell 53,000 vehicles. It is estimated that the annual sales volume will exceed 60,000 units.
According to this calculation, in 2015, 39 demonstration city groups across the country will also undertake the promotion indicators of 270,000 vehicles. Obviously, this is an extremely difficult task. Wang Binggang, head of the National 863 “Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicles†project supervision consulting expert group, said that from the perspective of the promotion of new energy vehicles in various regions in 2014, the pilot cities did not have the expected enthusiasm. “At the end of the day, many local governments may be It is a strange move, or else it will be kicked out of the list of central financial subsidies." Wang Binggang said.
It is reported that there are 39 cities and 88 cities in the list of new energy vehicle promotion and application cities, but as of the end of October 2014, only 65 cities (groups) have introduced promotion and application packages. Policy measures, including many cities with zero promotion.
According to the Notice of the Ministry of Finance and the National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions issued on December 30, 2014, the “Notice on the Financial Support Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles from 2016 to 2020 (Consultation Draft)â€, 2017 pure electric vehicles, plug-in type The hybrid vehicle subsidy standard will be reduced by 10% from 2016, and the 2019 subsidy standard will be further reduced by 10% from 2017. With the gradual reduction of subsidies, whether the new energy vehicle market can continue to maintain rapid growth and whether the promotion plan can be completed on time will be a question.
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