According to Shan Weiguo, director of the Market Research Institute of the China National Petroleum Corporation’s Institute of Economics and Technology, from the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the possibility of a drop in oil prices in 2008 is unlikely. The study concluded that the average annual oil price would be higher than US$80 per barrel. As an importer whose oil dependence on foreign countries is close to 50%, China’s economy is increasingly under pressure from high oil prices. In this regard, Deng Yusong, researcher of the Institute of Market Economy at the State Council Development Research Center, said that the continued high oil price will push China to focus on and establish an energy system that is more conducive to energy saving and emission reduction and industrial structure optimization. This includes not only a more complete energy supply system, but also More mature energy market system.
On December 26 last year, China issued a white paper entitled "China's Energy Status and Policies", which for the first time stated the status of China's energy development, energy development strategies and goals, and policy measures. The introduction of these policies and measures will have an important impact on the development of China's energy industry in 2008 and beyond. In addition, more energy industry policies are expected to be launched in 2008. On January 7, the State Council convened a meeting to review the “Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Refined Oil Pipeline Network Layout and the Eleventh Five-Year Development Plan,†further clarifying the objectives of China’s oil and gas pipeline network construction. High oil prices make it more effective to save resources. The revised energy conservation law defines conservation of resources as China's basic national policy.
According to a series of energy conservation and emission reduction statistical monitoring and assessment implementation plans and methods approved by the State Council at the end of 2007, local provincial officials will face accountability and “one vote veto†if they fail the energy saving results since 2008. In addition, fiscal leverage will be used more frequently to regulate resource consumption. On January 1, 2008, China began to impose or increase export tariffs on products with high energy consumption and large impact on the environment such as wood pulp, coke, ferro-alloys, steel billets, and some steel products. The resource tax reform plan is expected to be announced in 2008, and specific implementation regulations will also be introduced.
The highly-regarded energy law is also expected to be considered in 2008. As the basic law in China's energy regulation system, the energy law will ensure the implementation of China's energy strategy and energy economic security on the basis of national coercive force.
High oil prices are a double-edged sword. In the ever-changing international oil price game, we have seen risks, but we must also see the promotion of China's improved energy system.
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